基于随机森林的引江济太入湖磷通量计算  

Phosphorus Flux Calculation of Yangtze River-Lake Taihu Water Diversion Based on Random Forest

作　　者：陈年浩 陆昊[1] 饶文昕 刘彤 钱新[1] CHEN Nian-hao;LU Hao;RAO Wen-xin;LIU Tong;QIAN Xin(State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control&Resource Reuse,School of the Environment,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,南京210023

出　　处：《四川环境》2023年第6期1-7,共7页Sichuan Environment

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20211155);国家自然科学基金项目(41907388)。

摘　　要：在太湖蓝藻暴发的风险依然较高和未来规划引水水量增加的背景下,摸清引江济太入太湖不同形态的磷通量具有重要意义。基于2021年沿望虞河—太湖布设17个采样点的6次现场环境监测数据,运用随机森林(RF)方法构建溶解态总磷(DTP)浓度模拟模型并估算入湖溶解态磷和颗粒态磷通量。结果表明,RF模型的R^(2)、RMSE、NSE分别为0.690、0.0110和0.651,具有良好的拟合和泛化性能,为历史DTP浓度数据的反演提供了新思路。总磷、风向、浊度、水温、pH和溶解氧是模型的重要预测因子。2010~2021年,望虞河入湖的DTP通量为6.7~83.7 t,年均34.6 t,占TP通量的比例为42.2%~66.6%,引江济太调水入湖的溶解态磷输入对贡湖磷循环及水环境的影响需要引起重视,研究结果可为分析该影响提供关键数据,并为优化引江济太引水方案提供技术支持。Under the background that the risk of algal blooms is still high in Lake Taihu and the planned water diversion volume increases in the future,it is of great significance to identify the phosphorus flux of different forms of Yangtze River-Lake Taihu water diversion.Based on field environmental monitoring data from 17 sampling sites along Wangyu River and Lake Taihu in 2021,the random forest(RF)method was used to build a simulation model of dissolved total phosphorus(DTP)concentration and estimate the dissolved and particulate phosphorus flux into Lake Taihu.The results showed that the R2,RMSE and NSE of RF model were 0.690,0.0110 and 0.651,respectively,which had good fitting and generalization performance and could be applied to retrieve historical DTP concentration.Total phosphorus,wind direction,turbidity,water temperature,pH and dissolved oxygen were important predictors of the RF model.From 2010 to 2021,the DTP flux of Wangyu River into Lake Taihu was 6.7-83.7 t,with an average annual flux of 34.6 t,accounting for 42.2 to 66.6%of TP flux.Therefore,the influence of dissolved phosphorus input caused by Yangtze River-Lake Taihu water diversion on phosphorus cycle and water environment of Gonghu Bay needs to be paid more attention.This study results can provide key data for the analysis of the influence,and provide technical support for the optimization of water diversion scheme.

关 键 词：引江济太 望虞河 磷形态 磷通量 随机森林 

分 类 号：X3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]