2024年中国经济增长速度的预测分析与政策建议  

Forecast of China’s economic growth rate in 2024 and policy suggestions

作　　者：陈锡康[1,2] 杨翠红[1,2,6] 祝坤福 王会娟 李鑫茹[5] 赵宇 CHEN Xikang;YANG Cuihong;ZHU Kunfu;WANG Huijuan;LI Xinru;ZHAO Yu(Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Statistics and Mathematics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [4]中央财经大学统计与数学学院,北京100081 [5]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070 [6]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国科学院院刊》2024年第1期95-104,共10页Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71988101、61873261、72074208)。

摘　　要：2023年在疫情以后国民经济保持恢复态势,中国经济向着积极的方向复苏。但是经济恢复存在一定波动,预测2024年中国经济将平稳较快增长。文章综合运用了投入产出技术、景气分析、专家分析、统计和计量经济模型来预测国内生产总值(GDP)。通过回顾2023年中国的经济运行状况,并考虑到当下国内外的形势,预测显示2024年中国经济有望保持平稳运行,增速达到5.3%左右;基于对当前经济状况的分析,文章提出如下建议:加强宏观政策跨周期和逆周期调节力度;提升产业链现代化水平,提高产业链韧性和竞争力;稳定支持中小企业的发展。In 2023,China’s economy maintained a recovery trend after the epidemic.However,the economic recovery showed the characteristics of wave-like development,and it is expected that China’s economy will grow steadily and rapidly in 2024.This study introduces a comprehensive approach to forecasting annual GDP growth,integrating input-output models,econometric models,prosperity analysis,expert insights,and scenario analysis.Reviewing China’s economic performance in 2023 and the prevailing global and domestic conditions,it is projected that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 5.3%in 2024.Based on this analysis,several policy recommendations are suggested,namely,intensifying macro-control policies for both cyclical and counter-cyclical phases;elevating the industrial chain’s modernization to enhance its resilience and competitiveness;and providing steady support to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises.

关 键 词：经济预测 经济形势分析 国内生产总值 政策建议 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]