基于CMIP6多模式集合的华中地区气候变化模拟与预估  

Simulation and projection of climate change in Central China based on CMIP6 multi-model ensemble

作　　者：王苗[1] 秦鹏程[1] 佘晨旭 赵小芳 杨明伟 WANG Miao;QIN Pengcheng;SHE Chenxu;ZHAO Xiaofang;YANG Mingwei(Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074,China;Xiangyang Meteorological Service,Xiangyang 441021,China;Xiaogan Meteorological Service,Xiaogan 432020,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉区域气候中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]襄阳市气象局,湖北襄阳441021 [3]孝感市气象局,湖北孝感432020

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第6期51-60,共10页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：湖北省局科技发展基金项目(2021Q05);2021年湖北省低碳试点专项资金;国家重点研发计划政府间国际科技创新合作重点专项(2018YFE0196000)共同资助

摘　　要：选用华中地区1961—2014年逐日气象观测资料、1961—2100年12个CMIP6模式统计降尺度和偏差订正结果,评估CMIP6模式在区域的气温和降水量时空分布模拟结果,选出6个气温模式、4个降水量模式。基于优选模式集合的平均结果,分别分析未来SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5三种情景下2021—2100年华中地区不同时期气温和降水量的变化趋势。结果表明:多模式集合平均结果的气温年际变率模拟好于降水量,降水量空间模拟好于气温。三种情景下区域气温、降水量均为增加趋势,气温增速分别为0.13℃/10 a、0.30℃/10 a、0.62℃/10 a,降水量增速分别为16.2 mm/10 a、12.3 mm/10 a、19.3 mm/10 a。未来2021—2100年三种情景下华中地区降水量多为南部减小北部增大,气温近期、中期为西部降低、中东部升高,远期除湖北西部山区降低外,其他地区均为升高趋势。Utilizing daily meteorological observation data from Central China from 1961-2014,along with downscaled and bias-corrected data from 12 CMIP6 models from 1961-2100,this study assesses the spatial and temporal distributions of temperature and precipitation simulations of the CMIP6 models for the region,using the selected temperatures from six models and the precipitation data from four models.Based on the ensemble mean of the selected model results,the change trends in temperature and precipitation for Central China during different periods from 2021 to 2100 under three future scenarios i.e.SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 were analyzed.The results indicate that the ensemble mean provides better interannual variability in temperature simulations than those of precipitation,while the spatial simulation of precipitation is better than that of temperature.Under all three scenarios,both regional temperature and precipitation show increasing trends,with temperature rise rates of 0.13℃/decade,0.30℃/decade,and 0.62℃/decade,and precipitation rise rates of 16.2 mm/decade,12.3 mm/decade,and 19.3 mm/decade,respectively.For the future period from 2021 to 2100 under the three scenarios,precipitation in Central China is projected to decrease in the south and to increase in the north.Near-term and mid-term temperatures are expected to decrease in the west and to increase in the central and eastern parts,while the long-term trend indicates that temperature increases across the region and only decreases in the western mountainous area of Hubei.

关 键 词：降水量 气温 CMIP6 模式集合 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]