1961—2020年辽宁省气候年景分析及综合气候年景评价  

Analysis of annual climate and assessment of integrated annual climate from 1961 to 2020 in Liaoning province

作　　者：林益同 周晓宇[1] 赵春雨[1,2] 李倩 房一禾[1,2] 林蓉 王大钧[1] LIN Yitong;ZHOU Xiaoyu;ZHAO Chunyu;LI Qian;FANG Yihe;LIN Rong;WANG Dajun(Shenyang Regional Climate Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vertex Research,Shenyang 110166,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]东北冷涡研究重点开放实验室,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第6期105-111,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42005037);中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所联合开放基金(2021SYIAEKFMS08);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J022,CXFZ2021J028,CXFZ2021Z011,CXFZ2021J047);辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(BA202103)共同资助。

摘　　要：选用1961—2020年辽宁省61个国家级气象站逐日降水、气温和天气现象数据,根据辽宁省气候特点,分别建立雨涝年景、干旱年景、低温年景、高温年景和暴雪年景评价指标,构建辽宁省综合气候年景评价模型,实现辽宁省雨涝、干旱、低温、高温、暴雪单要素气候年景以及综合气候年景的量化评估。结果表明:近60 a辽宁省高温年景显著增强,低温和暴雪年景显著减弱,干旱和雨涝年景无显著变化趋势。综合气候年景存在15 a左右的年代际振荡周期,20世纪80年代后为显著的准3 a年际振荡周期。经历史重大天气气候事件、灾情以及业务实际应用对评估结果检验表明,建立的年景评估方法较为合理,可用于辽宁省气候年景评价。The data from 61 national meteorological stations in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2020 was selected,covering 60 years of daily precipitation,temperature,and weather phenomena.Based on the climatic characteristics of Liaoning province,evaluation indices for flood,drought,cold,heat,and blizzard climate conditions were established,and an integrated annual climate assessment model for Liaoning province was constructed.This model enables quantitative assessments of individual climate factors such as flood,drought,low temperature,high temperature,and blizzard,as well as an integrated annual climate assessment.The results indicate that over the past 60 years,the appearance of high-temperature years in Liaoning province has significantly intensified,while cold-weather and blizzard years have significantly weakened.There are no significant trends for the appearance of drought and heavy rainfall years.The comprehensive climate outlook shows a decadal oscillation cycle of about 15 years,with a significant quasi-3-year interannual oscillation cycle since the 1980s.Verification of the assessment results through historically significant meteorological and climate events,disaster occurrence,and practical applications in operations indicates that the established annual climate assessment method is reasonable and can be used for monitoring and evaluating the climate outlook in Liaoning province.

关 键 词：气候评价 熵权法 气候异常 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]