基于Markov-PLUS模型的长株潭城市群建设用地扩张模拟及碳排放响应分析  

Simulation of construction land expansion and carbon emission response analysis of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Urban Agglomeration based on Markov-PLUS model

作　　者：田一豆 赵先超 TIAN Yidou;ZHAO Xianchao(School of Urban and Environment,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学城市与环境学院,株洲412007

出　　处：《生态学报》2024年第1期129-142,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：湖南省社科评审委重大项目(XSP22ZDA008);湖南省自然科学基金(2021JJ50057);湖南省教育厅重点项目(22A0419);湖南省自然资源科技计划项目(2023-08)。

摘　　要：在双碳目标和新型城镇化背景下,保证经济平稳增长的同时减少碳排放是实现城市高质量发展的重要任务之一,更是长沙、株洲、湘潭等国家低碳试点城市重点建设目标之一。因此以长株潭城市群中用地变化和碳排放最为剧烈的中心城区作为研究区域,在现状分析的基础上运用Markov-PLUS耦合模型和碳排放响应模型,模拟了自然状态发展情景、耕地保护发展情景、生态保护发展情景和绿色低碳发展情景下建设用地扩张及碳排放响应情况。结果表明:①2000—2020长株潭城市群建设用地面积呈现阶段性的波动增长趋势,耕地和林地是其主要来源,扩张强度在2010—2015年最大,主要集中在城市群中心区域;碳排放量呈现倒“V”型曲线,可以划分为碳排放量快速上升阶段(2000—2005年)和碳排放量下降阶段(2005—2020年),以2010年为节点,下降幅度先增加后减缓;二者之间存在较为密切的正相关关系,整体表现为建设用地面积增加(减少)碳排放随之增加(减少)的较强扩张与较高排放模式。②Markov-PLUS模拟结果显示,长株潭城市群建设用地在自然状态发展情景下扩张面积最大(235.9503km^(2)),在生态保护发展情景下扩张面积最小(200.6354km^(2));绿色低碳发展情景下建设用地扩张所占用的生态碳汇面积相对较少(169.78km^(2)),占未利用地相比其他情景较多(1.20km^(2)),扩张分布较为合理,带来的生态环境压力和碳排放压力较小,既有利于生态环境保护也有利于社会经济发展。③碳排放响应结果显示,在不同情景下长株潭城市群各区县的碳排放对建设用地扩张均表现出一定的敏感性,综合建设用地扩张与碳排放响应结果,绿色低碳发展情景是长株潭城市群未来的较优发展模式。In the context of dual carbon goals and new urbanization,ensuring stable economic growth while reducing carbon emissions is one of the important tasks to achieve high-quality urban development,and it is also one of the key construction goals of national low-carbon pilot cities such as Changsha,Zhuzhou and Xiangtan.Therefore,taking the central urban area with the most drastic land use changes and carbon emissions in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration as the research area,on the basis of the current situation analysis,the Markov-PLUS coupling model and carbon emission response model are used to simulate the expansion of construction land and carbon emission response under the existing trend development scenario,the development scenario of arable land protection,the green and low-carbon development scenario,and the rational development and construction scenario.The results show that:①From 2000 to 2020,the construction land area of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration showed a trend of periodical fluctuation growth.Cultivated land and forest land were the main sources,and the expansion intensity was the largest from 2010 to 2015,mainly concentrated in the central area of the urban agglomeration.The carbon emissions showed an inverted"V"shaped curve,which could be divided into two stages:rapid rise of carbon emissions(2000—2005)and decline of carbon emissions(2005—2020).With 2010 as the node,the decline rate first increased and then slowed down.There is a relatively close positive correlation between construction land area expansion and carbon emission,the overall performance is a strong expansion of construction land area increase(decrease)carbon emissions increase(decrease)and higher emission mode.②The results of Markov-PLUS simulation show that the expansion area of construction land is the largest(235.9503km^(2))under the natural development scenario,and the smallest(200.6354km^(2))under the ecological protection development scenario.Under the scenario of green and low-carbon develo

关 键 词：Markov-PLUS模型 多情景模拟 建设用地扩张 碳排放响应 长株潭城市群 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]