矿山“生产冒进行为”的演化博弈分析  

Evolutionary Game Analysis on the "Risk-Taking Behaviors" in Mine Production

作　　者：王震 路增祥 WANG Zhen;LU Zengxiang(School of Mining Engineering,University of Science and Technology Liaoning,Anshan 114051,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁科技大学矿业工程学院,辽宁鞍山114051

出　　处：《金属矿山》2024年第1期269-275,共7页Metal Mine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51774176)。

摘　　要：“生产冒进行为”是矿山生产过程中对安全生产状态影响较大的不安全行为。为研究其产生的原因,采取相应的控制策略,采用演化博弈理论构建了工人和安全监管者演化博弈模型,并运用系统动力学方法分析了博弈过程。结果表明:(1)工人安全行为和安全监管者监管行为的成本与利益,是影响矿山“生产冒进行为”产生的重要原因;(2)矿山监管力度影响着工人不安全行为产生概率,在一定范围内,矿山监管力度与工人行为的安全概率呈正相关;(3)提高安全监管者对不稳定状态工人的经济惩罚,增大不稳定状态工人承担的风险成本,能够在短期内改善企业的安全生产状况;(4)工人处于行为安全状态的收益对工人行为安全和安全监管者监管行为的影响最大,企业可依据动态博弈演化过程和模型参数的影响程度,制定相应的安全管控策略。Risk-taking behaviours in mining production is one of the unsafety behaviours impacting the safety status of mine enterprises more seriously.In order to study the occurring causes of the risk-taking behaviours and their corresponding control strategy,an evolutionary game model of workers and safety regulators was constructed,and the game process was ana-lyzed by system dynamics method.The results show that:①The costs and benefits of workers′safety behavior and safety regu-lator′s supervision behavior are the major causes affecting the occurrence of"risk-taking behaviours"in mines;②The intensi-ty of mine supervision affects the probability of workers′unsafe behavior,and the intensity of mine supervision is positively cor-related with the safety probability of worker behavior within a certain range;③Increasing the economic punishment of safety regulators on unstable workers and increasing the risk cost borne by unstable workers can improve the safety production of en-terprises in a short period of time;④The benefits of workers in the behavioral safety state have the greatest impact on the regu-latory behavior of workers′behavioral safety and safety regulators.Enterprises can formulate corresponding safety control strate-gies according to the dynamic game evolution process and the influence degree of model parameters.

关 键 词：生产冒进行为 演化博弈模型 系统动力学 安全管控策略 

分 类 号：TD79[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]