近20年华西秋雨演变特征及其异常机理的进展  

Progress of the Evolutionary Characteristics of Autumn Rain in Western China and Its Anomalous Mechanism for the Past 20 Years

作　　者：李一诺 李跃清[2] LI Yinuo;LI Yueqing(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorology Administration,Chengdu,Chengdu 610072,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,四川成都610072

出　　处：《高原气象》2024年第1期1-15,共15页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0103,2019QZKK0105);国家自然科学基金重大研究计划集成项目(91937301)。

摘　　要：华西秋雨是中国西部地区出现的独特而复杂的秋季降水现象,与经济社会和国民生活息息相关。本文在20世纪以来对华西秋雨认识的基础上,从多角度对比回顾了近20年来关于华西秋雨研究的主要成果。首先,明确了华西秋雨的时空范围、降水强度,提出了表征其基本特征的量化标准和指数,揭示了华西秋雨显著的年际差异、“正-负-正”年代际变化和4~8年的周期循环;其次,指出了低中高纬度大气环流系统、热带海温强迫、青藏高原作用等对华西秋雨的不同重要影响,进而得到了多系统、多因子协同作用对华西秋雨异常演变的重要意义,丰富了华西秋雨异常演变认识;最后,针对华西秋雨现状,指出了不同季风、冷暖气流、演变成因、天气过程、夜雨特征、区域响应等方面存在的主要问题,并展望了青藏高原大地形下,华西秋雨多尺度协同作用及其物理机制的综合、精细分析研究等未来主要发展趋势。Autumn rain in western China is a unique and complex precipitation phenomenon that takes place during the autumn season in the western region of China,which is closely related to various aspects of economy,society and human life.This natural phenomenon has a profound impact on agriculture,transportation and other aspects of social production and life,sometimes even causes the phenomenon of autumn flood,which deserves full attention.Based on the basic understanding of the phenomenon in the 20th century,this paper compares and reviews the main research achievements of autumn rain in western China over the past 20 years from multiple perspectives.First of all,the spatial distribution range and temporal extent and precipitation intensity of autumn rain in West China are thoroughly explored,quantitative criteria and indexes such as ARI(Autumn Rain Index),DARI(Daily Autumn Rain Index)and MARI(Modified Autumn Rain Index)are also proposed.In addition to this,the significant interannual differences,the"positive-negative-positive"interdecadal variations and the 4~8 years cycle of autumn rain in western China fully demonstrate its complexity and inhomogeneity.Secondly,the different but important influences of atmospheric circulation systems at low,middle,and high latitudes,tropical sea temperature forcing including Pacific Ocean,Indian Ocean,and Atlantic Ocean as well as the Qinghai-Xizang(Tibet)Plateau effect and other aspects on the autumn rain in western China are pointed out.These different factors all play significant roles in the evolution of the phenomenon,but the mechanisms are different.This leads to the recognition of the significance of the multi-system and multi-factor synergistic effect on the anomalous evolution of autumn rain in western China,which enriches the understanding of the autumn rain and its impact.Finally,according to the current cognition of autumn rain in western China,the main problems that exist in the combination of different monsoon systems like Indian monsoon,East Asian monsoon and Plateau m

关 键 词：华西秋雨 演变特征 影响机制 研究进展 趋势展望 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]