全球通货膨胀分化:分析及中国对策  

Global Inflation Divergence:Analysis and China’s Countermeasures

作　　者：李连发[1] LI Lian-fa(School of Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院,北京100871

出　　处：《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2024年第1期63-72,共10页Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)

摘　　要：2017年以来,全球通货膨胀出现分化现象,这是自20世纪70年代布雷顿森林体系崩溃后少见的现象。逆全球化是当前全球通胀分化的主要原因之一。本文选取具有代表性的发达经济体的通胀情况进行分析,以此参照对比其与美国及其与中国通胀变化分化的情况。研究时间范围为2017年2月—2023年10月,涵盖两个阶段,涉及八个国家。采用协整检验和主成分分析发现,中国和美国是全球通胀分化的重要两极,主要发达经济体追随美国。中国未来面临逆全球化挑战的严峻程度和不确定性呈现上升趋势。我国应以“进”促“稳”,稳中求进,先立后破;研究把握主要发达国家在现有国际经济秩序中发挥主导作用的系统性的活动规律,探索中国在现有国际经济秩序中发挥更大作用、确保自身经济高水平安全发展的有效路径和方法。Since 2017,global inflation has diverged,a phenomenon rarely seen since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s.Anti-globalization is one of the main reasons for the current divergence in global inflation.This paper analyzes the inflation situation of a number of representative developed economies and compares their divergence with the United States and China.The time frame of the study is from February 2017 to October 2023,covering two phases and eight countries.Using co-integration test and principal component analysis,this paper finds that China and the United States act as two important poles of global inflation divergence,with major developed economies following the United States.The severity and uncertainty of the anti-globalization challenges facing China in the future are on the rise.China should promote stability by progress,and seek progress in stability,establish the necessary systems and rules first,and then gradually break the original institutional barriers.It needs to further study and master the systematic law that major developed countries play as a leading role in the existing international economic order,and at the same time,explore effective ways and methods for China to play a bigger role in the existing international economic order and ensure a high-level and secure economic development.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 核心通胀率 主成分分析 协整检验 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F821.5