基于biomod2组合模型的野生柳叶菜(Epilobium hirsutum)潜在适宜生境的变化  

Changes in Potentially Suitable Habitats for Epilobium hirsutum Based on Biomod2 Models

作　　者：陈丽玲 李志芳 刘天猛 CHEN Li-ling(College of Agricultural and Biological Sciences,Dali University,Dali,Yunnan 671003)

机构地区：[1]大理大学农学与生物科学学院,云南大理671003

出　　处：《园艺与种苗》2023年第12期9-14,43,共7页Horticulture & Seed

基　　金：云南省基础研究专项青年项目(202001AU070017);大理大学博士科研启动费项目(KY2096107540)。

摘　　要：[目的]利用物种分布模型,结合生物气候数据,对柳叶菜的适宜分布区域进行模拟。[方法]基于柳叶菜在全球的地理分布数据信息,通过气候数据和biomod2组合模型,对柳叶菜适宜分布最重要的环境变量、在气候变化背景下适宜生境的变化和质心转移进行评价分析。[结果]biomod2模型可以较准确地预测柳叶菜的生境适宜性变化,通过分析可知:年平均气温(bio1)、等温性(bio3)、年温差(bio7)、最潮湿季度的平均温度(bio8)是影响柳叶菜适宜分布最重要的环境因素。在气候变化背景下,3个全球气候模型均显示在biomod2组合模型模拟下柳叶菜的适宜生境面积减少,适宜分布区域向北迁移,且随着辐射强迫的增加,北迁越明显。柳叶菜分布质心向东北迁移,随着辐射强迫的增加,质心迁移越远。[结论]可为柳叶菜种质资源的保护和利用提供参考依据。[Objective]The species distribution model and bioclimatic data were used to simulate the suitable distribution area of Epilobium hirsutum.[Method]Based on the global geographic distribution data of E.hirsutum,combining climate data with biomod2 models,the most important environmental variables of the distribution,the change of suitable habitat and centroid shift under the background of climate change were evaluated and analyzed.In order to provide a reference for the protection and utilization of germplasm resources of E.hirsutum.[Result]The results showed that biomod2 model could accurately predict the habitat suitability changes of E.hirsutum.Annual mean temperature(bio1),isothermal(bio3),annual temperature difference(bio7)and average temperature in the wet test season(bio8)were the most important environmental factors affecting the suitable distribution of E.hirsutum.In the context of climate change,all the three global climate models showed that the suitable habitat area of E.hirsutum decreased under the biomod2 combined model simulation,the suitable distribution area migrates northward,and the northward migration becomes more obvious with the increase of radiative forcing.With the increase of radiative forcing,the centroid migrated to the northeast.[Conclusion]It could provide reference for the protection and utilization of germplasm resources of E.hirsutum.

关 键 词：柳叶菜 物种分布 气候变化 biomod2 潜在适生区 

分 类 号：Q949.95[生物学—植物学]