出口放缓、高质量换挡与地区经济增长  

Export Slowdown, High-quality Gear Shifting and Regional Economic Growth

作　　者：李逸飞 陈灵杉 李瑞子 Li Yifei;Chen Lingshan;Li Ruizi(Management World;School of International Business,Southwest University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]管理世界杂志社 [2]西南财经大学国际商学院

出　　处：《宏观质量研究》2023年第6期75-87,共13页Journal of Macro-quality Research

摘　　要：金融危机后,在外部需求疲软的背景下,中国出口贸易正经历从高速扩张“换挡”到中高速增长的“新常态”。出口“换挡”不仅意味着增速的放缓,还是产品质量的转型。以往文献中对于出口与经济增长因果关系中存在的内生性问题的解决有所不足。因此,利用2011—2015年的海关数据,从地级市层面和产品层面出发,基于经典的Bartik(1991)方法,构建地区出口冲击的工具变量,同时考虑出口产品要素密集度的变化,探究中国“新常态”背景下出口贸易“换挡”转型对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现:(1)OLS相比于2SLS回归较大程度低估了出口增速减缓对人均地区生产总值增长的抑制作用;(2)城市层面异质性分析发现,出口冲击仅对低平均出口增长率的城市具有更显著的作用;(3)资本与技术要素密集度的提高有利于减缓出口增速放缓对地区经济增长的抑制作用。After the financial crisis,in the context of weak external demand,China’s export trade is experiencing a“shift”from high-speed expansion to medium-high growth of the“new normal”.Export“shift”means not only a slowdown in growth rate,but also a transformation of product quality.The previous literatures have not solved the endogenous problem in the causal relationship between export and economic growth.Therefore,we use customs data from 2011 to 2015 to construct instrumental variables of regional export shocks at the level of prefecture-level cities and products based on the classic Bartik(1991)method,and at the same time considers changes in the factor intensity of export products.Explore the impact of the“shift”of Export trade on regional economic growth in the context of China’s“new normal”.We found that:(1)OLS significantly underestimated the inhibitory effect of export slowdown on GDP per capita growth compared with 2SLS regression;(2)City-level heterogeneity analysis shows that export shock only has a more significant effect on cities with low average export growth rate;(3)The increase of capital and technology factor intensity is beneficial to mitigate the inhibitory effect of export slowdown on regional economic growth.This paper is of guiding significance in studying the marginal contribution of export trade to the economic growth of prefecture-level cities in China.

关 键 词：出口增速放缓 地区经济增长 要素密集度 Bartik工具变量 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F124[经济管理—产业经济]