农业保险、农业信贷与农户稳收增收--基于联立方程模型的实证分析  

Agricultural Insurance,Agricultural Credit and Steady Growth of Farmers’Income--Empirical Analysis Based on Simultaneous Equation Model

作　　者：陈康 叶明华[2] 王世保 Chen Kang;Ye Minghua;Wang Shibao

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济与管理学院 [2]华东师范大学统计学院

出　　处：《兰州学刊》2024年第1期145-160,共16页

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“风险测度、农户增信与农村普惠金融优化研究”(项目编号:20BJY261)。

摘　　要：确保农户收入稳步增长对于保障国家粮食安全及推进农村共同富裕具有重要战略意义。文章在测算我国农户收入变动基础上,立足农业保险与农业信贷交互效应视角,基于2012-2021年我国省级面板数据,利用联立方程模型分析农业保险与农业信贷对农户稳收增收的影响。研究发现:其一,在单一视角层面,农业保险具有显著的稳收增收效应,而农业信贷的稳收增收效应不显著;其二,在交互效应视角层面,农业保险与农业信贷在促进农户稳收增收过程中存在较为明显的交互效应。进一步分析发现,农业保险与农业信贷可以相互促进,能够与农业稳收增收形成良性互动。为此,建议持续推进农业保险扩面增品提标、着力提升农业信贷资金配置效率、积极推动农业保险与农业信贷工具协同发展。It is of great strategic significance to ensure the stable and increased income of farmers for ensuring national food security and promoting rural common prosperity.On the basis of calculating the changes in farmers’income in China,this article analyzes the impact of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit on farmers’stability and income growth from the perspective of the interaction effect between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit,based on provincial-level panel data from 2012 to 2021 in China,using a simultaneous equation model.The results show that,firstly,from a single perspective,agricultural insurance has a significant stabilizing and increasing income effect,while agricultural credit has no significant stabilizing and increasing income effect.Secondly,from the perspective of interaction effects,there is a significant interaction effect between agricultural insurance and agricultural credit in promoting stable and increased income for farmers.Further analysis reveals that agricultural insurance and agricultural credit can promote each other and form a positive interaction with farmers’stable and increased income.Therefore,it is recommended to continue promoting the expansion of agricultural insurance and the upgrading of products,focusing on improving the efficiency of agricultural credit fund allocation,and actively promoting the coordinated development of agricultural insurance and agricultural credit tools.

关 键 词：农业保险 农业信贷 农业稳收增收 交互效应 联立方程模型 

分 类 号：F842[经济管理—保险]