财政货币政策、盯住目标偏好与结构性调控  

Fiscal and Monetary Policy,Target Preference and Structural Regulation

作　　者：张龙[1] 申瑛琦 ZHANG Long;SHEN Ying-qi(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2024年第1期162-176,共15页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(23BJY202)。

摘　　要：本文首先定量测度中国财政货币政策调控指数,并结合经济现实总结中国财政货币政策的盯住目标偏好,进一步基于TVTP-MS-FAVAR模型“量化”检验财政货币政策的“总量调控”与“结构调控”效应。研究发现:第一,财政货币政策调控指数具有较好拟合效果与指引功效,宏观调控“逆周期”特征明显,财政政策主要关注经济增长,货币政策侧重盯住物价水平。第二,财政政策的增长效应存在“收支”差异与“结构”异同,政府投资性支出与消费税的“区制”调控功效明显。第三,货币政策的价格效应存在“量价”分化与“区制”偏好,数量工具在物价上涨“区制”调控效应显著,价格工具在物价下跌“区制”调控效果更优。本文结论对政策当局准确把握财政货币政策调控取向时变动态特征、盯住目标偏好、结构调控及协同配合范式,具有重要参考价值。The target preference and the structural effects of fiscal and monetary policy are the focus of the policy authorities.This article first quantitatively measures China's fiscal and monetary policy regulation index,and combines China's macroeconomic development to summarize the target preference of China's fiscal and monetary policy,and further based on TVTP-MS-FAVAR model analysis the effects of China's fiscal and monetary policy on the macroeconomic target's "total regulation" and "structural optimization".First,China's fiscal and monetary policy regulation indexes have a better policy matching effect and guiding effect.The macroeconomic regulation "counter-cyclical" feature is obvious.The fiscal policy mainly focuses on economic growth,and the monetary policy focuses on the price level.Second,the economic growth effect of fiscal policy has similarities and differences in "revenue and expenditure" and "structure",the "regional" effect of government investment expenditure and consumption tax is obvious.Third,the price effect of monetary policy has "quantity and price" differentiation and "regional preference".Quantitative tools have significant "regional" regulation effects when prices rise,and priced tools have better "regional" regulation effects when prices fall.The conclusions of this paper have important reference value for the policy authorities to grasp the time-varying dynamic characteristics of China's fiscal and monetary policy regulation,fiscal and monetary policy pegging to target preferences,fiscal and monetary policy structural regulation and coordination paradigm.

关 键 词：财政政策 货币政策 目标偏好 结构调控 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学] F015[理学—概率论与数理统计] O212[理学—数学]