碳中和背景下粤港澳大湾区臭氧浓度及敏感性变化  

The Ozone Concentration and Changes in the Sensitivity of Its Formation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from a Carbon Neutral Perspective

作　　者：郝江虹 李悦[2] 赵莹[1] 程沁毓 赵秀勇 陈东升[1] HAO Jianghong;LI Yue;ZHAO Ying;CHENG Qinyu;ZHAO Xiuyong;CHEN Dongsheng(Key Laboratory of Beijing on Regional Air Pollution Control,Faculty of Environment and Life,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;Laboratory of Transport Pollution Control and Monitoring Technology,Transport Planning and Research Institute,Ministry of Transport,Beijing 100028,China;State Key Laboratory for Clean and Efficient Coal-fired Power Generation and Pollution Control,National Environmental Protection Research Institute for Electric Power Limited Company,Nanjing 210031,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学环境与生命学部,北京区域空气污染控制重点实验室,北京100124 [2]交通运输部规划研究院交通排放控制监测技术实验室,北京100028 [3]国家能源集团科学技术研究院有限公司,清洁高效燃煤发电与污染控制国家重点实验室,南京210031

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2024年第1期204-213,共10页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China (51978011);The Opening Project of State Key Laboratory for Clean and Efficient Coal-fired Power Generation and Pollution Control (D2022FK082)。

摘　　要：为探究碳中和目标下减排措施对粤港澳大湾区臭氧(O_(3))形成的潜在影响,我们重点研究了粤港澳大湾区城区和郊区的O_(3)浓度和敏感性变化。本文基于中国未来排放动态评估模型(Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China,简称DPEC)提供的“双碳”目标下的排放情景数据,采用WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ空气质量模式,分别模拟了我国2020年、2030年和2060年这三个关键节点年份的O_(3)浓度,并利用内嵌于CMAQ的DDM(Decoupled Direct Method)模块计算了各地O_(3)对NO_(x)和VOC的一阶敏感系数S_(O_(3_)NO_(x)),以揭示O_(3)对这两种主要前体物排放的响应敏感程度。研究表明:(1)对于O_(3)浓度的变化,从不同季节来看,与2020年相比,粤港澳大湾区地区2030年和2060年冬季O_(3)浓度均呈上升趋势。从不同城市来看,与其他城市相比,深圳的O_(3)浓度一直处于明显的上升趋势。(2)对于O_(3)敏感性的变化,S_(O_(3_)NO_(x))整体呈上升趋势,且负值区域逐渐减少,正值区域逐渐扩大。2030年S_(O_(3_)NO_(x))负值绝对值下降,NO_(x)滴定作用减弱。2060年,粤港澳大湾区大部分地区S_(O_(3_)NO_(x))转化为正值。对S_(O_(3_)NO_(x))来说,未来情景中研究区域全年均为正值且整体呈下降趋势。To investigate the potential impact of emission reduction measures on ozone(O_(3))formation under the carbon neutrality target,we examined the changes in O_(3) concentration and their sensitivity to various parameters in the urban and suburban areas of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA).In this study,we used the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF),the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions(SMOKE)and the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling system(CMAQ)air quality model to simulate O_(3) formation in three key years of 2020,2030 and 2060,based on the Ambitious-pollution-Neutral-goal scenario data from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China(DPEC)model.The decoupled direct method(DDM)module embedded in CMAQ was used to calculate the first-order sensitivity coefficients of O_(3) to nitrogen oxides(S_(O_(3_)NO_(x)))and volatile organic compounds(SO_(3)_VOC).The results show several important trends in the O_(3) concentrations and sensitivity.(1)For the changes in O_(3) concentrations,in terms of different seasons,the O_(3) concentration in the GBA region shows an increasing trend in winter in both 2030 and 2060 compared to 2020.In terms of different cities,the O_(3) concentration in Shenzhen shows a significant increasing trend compared to the other cities.(2)For changes in O_(3) sensitivity,S_(O_(3_)NO_(x)) shows an increasing trend,with the negative area declining and the positive area increasing.In 2030,the negative absolute value of S_(O_(3_)NO_(x)) is reduced,indicating that the NO_(x) titration effect will be weakened.In 2060,S_(O_(3_)NO_(x)) becomes positive in most areas of the GBA region.For SO_(3)_VOC,the future scenario shows positive values throughout the study area for all years,but a decreasing trend.

关 键 词：臭氧敏感性 未来趋势 粤港澳大湾区 CMAQ-DDM 

分 类 号：X515[环境科学与工程—环境工程]