老年女性骨质疏松性骨折相邻椎体再骨折的影响因素及列线图预测模型构建  

Influencing factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture and construction of a prediction model based on Nomogram

作　　者：王晓鹏[1] 钟容 钟燕 林峰[1] 叶书熙[1] Wang Xiaopeng;Zhong Rong;Zhong Yan;Lin Feng;Ye Shuxi(Ganzhou People’s Hospital,Ganzhou 341000,Jiangxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]赣州市人民医院,江西省赣州市341000

出　　处：《中国组织工程研究》2024年第36期5799-5804,共6页Chinese Journal of Tissue Engineering Research

基　　金：赣州市科技计划项目(编号:2022-YB1475),项目负责人:王晓鹏。

摘　　要：背景:有关老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者相邻椎体再骨折的研究较多,但其相关危险因素仍在争论中,如何将其风险直观地呈现以便于临床应用的研究较少。目的:分析影响老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者相邻椎体再骨折的危险因素并构建列线图(Nomogram)预测模型。方法:选择2018年1月至2022年11月赣州市人民医院收治的268例老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者,经皮穿刺椎体成形术后3个月根据是否发生相邻椎体再骨折分为研究组(发生相邻椎体再骨折,n=31)和对照组(未发生相邻椎体再骨折,n=237)。比较两组患者一般临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析影响老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者相邻椎体再骨折的独立风险因素,利用R软件“rms”包构建Nomogram预测模型。结果与结论:①两组患者的年龄、绝经年龄、体质量指数、骨折病史、术前骨折椎体数、骨水泥渗漏、骨密度、术后后凸畸形角度、术前Oswestry功能障碍指数比较差异均有显著性意义(P<0.05);②多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄(>69岁)、绝经年龄(≤51岁)、体质量指数(>24.7 kg/m^(2))、骨折病史(有)、术前骨折椎体数(≥2)、术后后凸畸形角度(>13°)是影响老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者相邻椎体再骨折的独立危险因素(P<0.05);③Nomogram预测模型决策曲线结果显示,当风险阈值>0.09时,此预测模型可以提供显著额外的临床净收益;④结果表明,年龄较大、绝经年龄较低、体质量指数较高、有骨折病史、术前骨折椎体数较多、术后后凸畸形角度较大是老年女性骨质疏松性椎体压缩性骨折患者相邻椎体再骨折的独立影响因素,基于此构建的Nomogram预测模型可为此类患者相邻椎体再骨折的防治提供重要的策略指导。BACKGROUND:There have been many studies on adjacent vertebral fractures in elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures,but their related risk factors are still in debate.There are also few studies on how to intuitively present their risks for clinical application.OBJECTIVE:To analyze the risk factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in senile women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture and construct a Nomogram prediction model.METHODS:A total of 268 elderly female patients with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture who came to Ganzhou People’s Hospital for treatment from January 2018 to November 2022 were selected and divided into study group(adjacent vertebral refracture,n=31)and control group(no adjacent vertebral refracture,n=237)according to whether adjacent vertebral refracture occurred 3 months after percutaneous vertebroplasty.General clinical data were compared between the two groups.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was conducted to analyze the independent risk factors of adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly women with osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture.A Nomogram prediction model was constructed by R software“rms”package.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:(1)There were statistically significant differences in age,menopause age,body mass index,fracture history,number of fractured vertebra before surgery,bone cement leakage,bone density,postoperative kyphotic deformity angle,and preoperative Oswestry disability index between the two groups(P<0.05).(2)Multivariate logistic regression analysis results showed that age(>69 years old),menopause age(≤51 years old),body mass index(>24.7 kg/m^(2)),fracture history(presence),number of fractured vertebra before surgery(≥2),and postoperative kyphotic deformity angle(>13°)were independent risk factors for adjacent vertebral refracture in elderly female osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture patients(P<0.05).(3)Nomogram prediction model decision curve results displayed that when the risk threshold

关 键 词：骨质疏松 椎体压缩性骨折 女性 相邻椎体再骨折 影响因素 列线图 

分 类 号：R459.9[医药卫生—治疗学] R319[医药卫生—临床医学] R683.2