长江上游近61年来水文干旱演变特征及归因  

Evolution and attribution of hydrological drought in upper Yangtze River Basin over the last 61 years

作　　者：李帅 曾凌 熊斌[3] 曹瑞 龚文婷 朱文丽 LI Shuai;ZENG Ling;XIONG Bin;CAO Rui;GONG Wenting;ZHU Wenli(Operation and Administration Center for River Basin Hydro Complex,China Three Gorges Corporation,Yichang 443133,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;School of Infrastructure Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司流域枢纽运行管理中心,湖北宜昌443133 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,武汉430010 [3]南昌大学工程建设学院,南昌330031

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2024年第2期33-45,共13页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52109024);长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U2340205,U2040218)。

摘　　要：水文干旱受气候变化和人类活动的共同影响,揭示变化环境下水文干旱演变特征及驱动机制,有助于提高防旱抗旱能力。基于长江上游1960—2020年长系列气象水文数据,采用多模型集合模拟重建天然径流并计算标准化径流指数,采用广义可加模型构建时变标准化径流指数,通过指数对比定量区分气候变化和人类活动对水文干旱的影响。结果表明:长江上游水文干旱自然演变总体呈加剧态势,人类活动进一步加剧了旱情;长江上游水文干旱演变驱动因子表现出明显的时空差异,气候变化是金沙江、沱江和乌江流域年尺度水文干旱演变的主导因子,人类活动是岷江、嘉陵江和整个上游流域年尺度水文干旱演变的主导因子,季节尺度主导因子与年尺度并不完全一致。Hydrological drought is jointly affected by climate change and human activities.Revealing the evolution characteristics of hydrological drought and its driving factors in the changing environment will contribute to improving the capacities of drought control and drought resistance.Based on the long time series of meteorological and hydrological data of 1960-2020 from the Upper Yangtze River Basin(UYRB),the present study first generates naturalized runoff time series using multi-model ensemble simulation method,and uses the reconstructed natural runoff to calculate the traditional standardized runoff index(SRIr)for characterizing the hydrological drought under natural conditions.Then,we simulate the time-dependent standardized runoff index(SRIt)using the generalized additive model for location,scale and shape(GAMLSS)with time as the covariate to represent the hydrological drought under non-stationary environment.Finally,the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought are distinguished quantitatively by comparative analysis of SRIr and SRIt series.The results show the overall trend of the hydrological drought evolution in this basin under natural conditions is intensified and has been further aggravated by human activities.The dominant factors of its hydrological drought evolution present obvious temporal and spatial differences:on the annual scale,climate change is the dominant factor in the basins of the Jinsha River,Tuo River and Wu River,while human activities are dominant in the Min River,Jialing River,and the whole upper Yangtze basin.Dominant factors of hydrological drought evolution on the seasonal scale are not completely consistent with those on the annual scale.

关 键 词：水文干旱 气候变化 人类活动 集合模拟 非一致性 长江上游 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]