柘荣县乡镇温度预报订正方法研究  

Study on the Correction Method of Temperature Forecast in Zherong County

作　　者：林天扬 陈施静 黄雄 Lin Tian-yang(Zherong Meteorological Bureau,Zherong,Fujian 355300)

机构地区：[1]福建省柘荣县气象局,福建柘荣355300

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2023年第11期119-121,124,共4页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：采用2011—2020年柘荣县大监站(双城镇、城郊乡)和境内7个乡镇区域自动站(富溪镇、乍洋乡、东源乡、黄柏乡、宅中乡、楮坪乡和英山乡)逐日(20:00—翌日20:00)日最高气温、日最低气温,以及国家气象站逐日日照资料。运用多元回归分析方法构建乡镇温度预报订正方程,并使用2021—2022年的实况数据对其预报效果进行检验,对不分季节的预报方程和分季节的预报方程进行对比分析,得到适合柘荣县的乡镇温度预报订正方程。From 2011 to 2020,the daily maximum and minimum temperatures of Dajian Station(Shuangcheng Town and Chengjiao Township) in Zherong County and the regional automatic stations in seven townships(Fuxi Town,Zhayang Township,Dongyuan Township,Huangbai Township,Zhazhong Township,Chuping Township and Yingshan Township) and the daily sunshine data of the National Meteorological Station are used.The multiple regression analysis method is used to construct the township temperature forecast correction equation,and the actual data from 2021~2022 is used to test the forecast effect.The comparison and analysis between the non seasonal forecast equation and the seasonal forecast equation are carried out,and the township temperature forecast correction equation suitable for Zherong County is obtained.

关 键 词：区域自动站 温度预报 预报效果 订正 

分 类 号：P457.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]