基于AHP和云模型的公路BOT项目风险管理研究  

Risk Management of Highway BOT Projects Based on AHP and Cloud Model

作　　者：杨祥 李国良[1] YANG Xiang;LI Guo-liang(Faculty of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学建筑工程学院,昆明650500

出　　处：《价值工程》2024年第4期19-22,共4页Value Engineering

摘　　要：为了降低公路BOT项目的管理风险,保证项目的顺利实施,提出了基于层次分析法和云模型的风险评估体系。从公路BOT项目全寿命周期出发,基于故障树法识别了项目各阶段的风险源,利用层次分析法确定了各风险指标的权重。在此基础上引入风险随机性和模糊性概念,利用模糊数学将风险指标模糊化,结合云模型理论和风险矩阵理论,确定了公路BOT项目的风险的等级,并以某实际公路BOT项目为例,成功验证了本文提出的风险评估体系的有效性。研究成果可以为公路BOT项目风险防控提供依据,为保障BOT项目顺利实施提供新视野。To reduce the management risks of highway BOT(Build-Operate-Transfer)projects and ensure their smooth implementation,a risk assessment system based on Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and cloud model is proposed.Starting from the entire lifecycle of highway BOT projects,the risk sources at each stage are identified using Fault Tree Analysis(FTA),and the weights of various risk indicators are determined using AHP.On this basis,the concepts of risk randomness and fuzziness are introduced,and the risk indicators are fuzzified using fuzzy mathematics.By combining the cloud model theory and risk matrix theory,the risk levels of highway BOT projects are determined.Taking a practical highway BOT project as an example,the effectiveness of the proposed risk assessment system is successfully verified.The research results can provide a basis for risk prevention and control in highway BOT projects,and offer a new perspective for ensuring the smooth implementation of BOT projects.

关 键 词：公路BOT项目 层次分析法 模糊数学 云模型 风险管理 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]