1999—2018年广东省自然灾害灾情时空变化特征及影响因素研究  

Research on Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors ofLoss of Natural Disasters in Guangdong Province From 1999 to 2018

作　　者：王江波[1] 顾梦瑶 吴宇凡 苟爱萍 WANG Jiangbo;GU Mengyao;WU Yufan;GOU Aiping(College of Architecture,Nanjing Tech University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211816,China;Urbanisation and Urban-Rural Planing Research Center of Jiangsu,Nanjing Jiangsu 210036,China;School of Ecological Technology and Engineering,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学建筑学院,江苏南京211816 [2]江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心,江苏南京210036 [3]上海应用技术大学生态技术与工程学院,上海201418

出　　处：《安全》2024年第2期22-31,共10页Safety & Security

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51978329,51778364)。

摘　　要：为科学评估广东省自然灾害灾情时空演化特征,以1999—2018年广东省自然灾害损失基本数据为基础,利用CRITIC权重法构建综合灾情指数模型,同时,利用地理探测器从多因子角度对广东省自然灾害灾情从时间、空间上开展研究,探究其变化规律和影响因素。结果表明:时间上,总体灾情具有指数波动剧烈、大小灾年交替、不同维度线性趋势不一致等特点;空间上,空间分异程度较大,综合灾情指数城市分布为边缘高—中间低的格局,无明显集中趋势。地理探测器中的因子探测分析对灾情大小的影响,极端气象因子起直接作用,地形地表因子起间接作用,基础建设因子起助推作用,防灾减灾因子起缓冲作用;交互探测分析发现,地势起伏度、人均绿地公园面积、经济发达程度在与其他各因子共同作用时对广东省灾情影响作用较大。In order to scientifically assesses the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of natural disasters in Guangdong Province,the CRITIC weighting method was used to build a synthetical disaster condition index model on the basis of the basic data of natural disaster losses in Guangdong Province from 1999 to 2018.At the same time,geographical detectors were used to conduct the research on natural disasters in Guangdong Province from a multi-factor perspective to explore their changing characteristics and influencing factors.The results show that the overall disaster situation has the characteristics of violent fluctuations,alternation of large and small disaster years,and inconsistent linear trends in different dimensions from time perspective;and that the degree of spatial differentiation of the synthetical disaster condition index is relatively large from spatial perspective,and the urban distribution of the synthetical disaster condition index is high on the edge and low in the middle,without obvious centralization trend.Among the influence on the loss severity from the perspective of the factor detection analysis of geographical detectors,the extreme climate factor plays a direct role,the terrain and surface factor plays an indirect role,the infrastructure factor plays a boosting role,and the disaster prevention and mitigation factor plays a buffering role.Through interaction detection analysis,it is found that terrain relief,green park area per capita,and economic development have a greater impact on the disaster situation in Guangdong Province when they interact with other factors.

关 键 词：自然灾害 灾情评估 综合灾情指数 时空变化 影响因素 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P954[天文地球—自然地理学]