自建房火灾致因网络拓扑特征及脆弱性研究  

Research on Topological Characteristics and Vulnerability of Causal Network for Self-built House Fire

作　　者：邢艳冬 孟文静 周建亮 薛树国 XING Yandong;MENG Wenjing;ZHOU Jianliang;XUE Shuguo(School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China;College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China;China Construction Communications Engineering Group Corporation Limited,Beijing 100142,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学力学与土木工程学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]湖南工业大学城市与环境学院,湖南株洲412007 [3]中建交通建设集团有限公司,北京100142

出　　处：《安全》2024年第2期40-49,共10页Safety & Security

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72171224);安徽省检察理论研究课题(WJ202317)。

摘　　要：为预防我国自建房火灾的发生,首先,基于事故致因“2-4”模型分析39起自建房火灾事故案例,编码得到48个致因因素和128条致因关系;然后,基于复杂网络理论构建自建房火灾致因网络拓扑结构模型,分析网络的度、介数和接近中心性等拓扑特征;最后,以最大强连通子图相对大小、最大弱连通子图相对大小和全局网络效率作为网络脆弱性评价指标,仿真分析不同节点攻击策略下网络的脆弱性,得到自建房火灾关键致因因素,并提出防灾措施及建议。结果表明:自建房火灾致因网络具有小世界效应和无标度特性,致因间转换路径较短,少数关键节点与大多数节点相连;自建房火灾致因网络在遭受单个节点故障和随机累积节点故障时具有一定的鲁棒性,遭受蓄意累积节点攻击时,表现出较强的脆弱性;采用累积节点攻击策略中的蓄意度攻击时,网络表现出的脆弱性最强,度排序靠前的节点较为重要,是自建房火灾关键致因因素,为自建房消防安全管理提供理论参考。In order to prevent the occurrence of self-built house fires in China,firstly,based on 24Model,39 cases of self-built house fire accidents were analyzed,and 48 causal factors and 128 causal relationships were encoded.Then,based on the complex network theory,the topology structure model for the self-built house fire was constructed,and the topological characteristics of the network,such as degree,betweenness,and closeness centrality,were analyzed.Finally,the relative size of the maximum strongly connected subgraph,the relative size of the maximum weakly connected subgraph,and the global network efficiency were used as network vulnerability evaluation indicators to simulate and analyze the network vulnerability under different node attack strategies.The key causal factors of the self-built house fire were identified,and disaster prevention measures and suggestions were proposed.The results show that the self-built house fire causal network has a small world effect and scale-free property,with a short transition path between causes and a few key nodes connected to most nodes;that the self-built house fire causal network exhibits certain robustness when subjected to single node failures and random cumulative node failures,and exhibits strong vulnerability when subjected to intentional cumulative node attacks;and that when the intentional degree attack strategy in the cumulative node attack strategy is used,the network exhibits the strongest vulnerability,and the nodes with the highest degree ranking are more important.They are the key causal factors to self-built house fires,providing theoretical reference for the fire safety management of self-built houses.

关 键 词：自建房 火灾 复杂网络 拓扑特征 节点攻击 脆弱性 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]