人口结构转变视角下中国现代金融市场转型分析:国际比较与启示  

An Analysis of China's Modern Financial Market Transition from the Perspective of Demographic Transition:International Comparison and Implications

作　　者：张鹏[1,2] Zhang Peng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第2期49-59,共11页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“人口老龄化影响产业结构的机制、效应与对策研究”(20BRK026);国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于中国实践的经济增长理论创新研究”(22&ZD053)。

摘　　要：随着中国人口结构的快速转变,如何减缓老龄化冲击和发掘老龄化阶段增长潜力是中国经济向高质量转型的关键。本文首先从理论上分析了人口结构转变对金融市场的影响机理,然后使用CGSS2021年和CHFS2019年的微观调查数据从金融市场参与者角度分析了现阶段中国金融市场存在的问题与挑战,研究发现:中国各年龄段居民家庭资产主要集中于以房地产为代表的间接金融市场,较少参与以股票、债券为代表的直接金融市场,与美日等发达国家投资品类平衡、多元形成鲜明对比;此外资产和负债期限错配问题严重,久期差异会造成风险累积也加剧储蓄耗散和消费升级难题。因此,随着人口老龄化时代到来和储蓄耗散不断增加,建设现代金融市场体系不仅可以促进居民财富不断保值增值,还能减轻老龄化所致的养老金和公共财政压力。With the rapid change of China′s population structure,how to mitigate the impact of aging and explore the growth potential in the aging stage is the key to China′s economic transformation to high quality.This paper firstly theoretically analyzes the impact mechanism of demographic structure transformation on the financial market,and then uses the micro-survey data of CGSS2021 and CHFS2019 to analyze the existing problems and challenges in China′s financial market at the present stage.The research finds that:Chinese household assets of all ages are mainly concentrated in the indirect financial market represented by real estate,and rarely participate in the direct financial market represented by stocks and bonds,which is in sharp contrast to the balanced and diversified investment categories of developed countries such as the United States and Japan.In addition,the maturity mismatch of assets and liabilities is serious,and the duration difference will cause the accumulation of risks and aggravate the problem of savings dissipation and consumption upgrading.Therefore,with the advent of the age of aging population and the increasing dissipation of savings,the construction of a modern financial market system can not only promote the continuous preservation and appreciation of residents′wealth,but also reduce the pressure on pensions and public finance caused by aging.

关 键 词：人口结构转变 金融资产结构 现代金融市场 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]