我国制造业技术进步诱因及内在机制研究  

Research on the Causes and Internal Mechanisms of Technological Progress in China's Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：吴迪 Wu Di

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院决策咨询部战略政策室

出　　处：《经济学家》2024年第2期81-90,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的主要标志和重要指标研究”(23ZDA026)。

摘　　要：从诱致性技术进步视角,分析制造业技术进步主要是由资本价格下降诱致还是劳动力成本上升诱致,进而辨别制造业诱致性技术进步属于“主动吞噬”就业还是“被动补充”劳动力空缺。本文通过构建要素价格变动诱致制造业企业技术进步的理论模型,利用我国A股制造业上市公司数据进行实证检验。结果发现:劳动力成本上升和资本价格下降均会促进资本深化,实现企业技术进步;我国制造业技术进步主要是劳动力成本上升所诱致;要素价格变化可通过提高人力资本水平、增加创新投入途径来实现制造业技术进步,但会排斥低技能劳动力。因此,在加快人工智能与制造业深度融合中需加强技能培训和优化教育结构,以稳定低技能劳动力就业并建立高人力资本后备军。From the perspective of induced technological progress,this paper analyzes whether manufacturing technological progress is mainly caused by a decrease in capital prices or an increase in labor costs,and then distinguishes whether manufacturing induced technological progress belongs to"actively devouring"employment or"passively supplementing"labor vacancies.This paper constructs a theoretical model of factor price fluctuations inducing technological progress in manufacturing enterprises,and conducts empirical testing using data from A-share manufacturing listed companies in China.It is found that both rising labor costs and falling capital prices will promote capital deepening and achieve technological progress in enterprises;The technological progress in China′s manufacturing industry is mainly induced by the increase in labor costs;The change in factor prices can achieve technological progress in the manufacturing industry by increasing the level of human capital and increasing innovative investment channels,but it will exclude low-skilled labor.Therefore,in accelerating the deep integration of artificial intelligence and manufacturing,it is necessary to strengthen skill training and optimize the education structure to stabilize the employment of low skilled labor and establish a reserve force of high human capital.

关 键 词：诱致性技术进步 劳动力成本 资本价格 制造业就业 低技能劳动力 高人力资本 

分 类 号：F242[经济管理—劳动经济]