动态视角下的低碳能源转型分析:需求弹性、竞争结构和社会福利  

A Dynamic Analysis of Low Carbon Energy Transition:Demand Elasticity,Competition Structure and Social Welfare

作　　者：赵甜 沈曦 王金良[3] ZHAO Tian;SHEN Xi;WANG Jin-liang(College of Finance and Economics,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Taian 271001,China;Department of Economics,Northeastern University,Boston 02115,USA;School of Management,Guangdong University of Science and Technology,Dongguan 523083,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学财经学院,山东泰安271001 [2]东北大学经济系,美国波士顿02115 [3]广东科技学院管理学院,广东东莞523083

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2024年第2期69-83,共15页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23BGL052);青岛市社会科学规划研究项目(QDSKL2301121)。

摘　　要：本文将传统AIDS模型扩展到二阶段情形,利用1980-2020年亚太地区四大粮商的能源消费和经营数据,测算常见能源选项的需求价格弹性,从上游供给结构和下游需求弹性分析能源转型带来的社会福利变化趋势。研究发现:1.需求弹性方面,常见能源选项随着产业周期的变动表现出低-高-低的趋势,随着新能源产业进入成熟期,原先效果显著的价格杠杆逐渐失去作用。2.供给结构方面,传统化石能源表现出相对稳定的集中化供给结构,新能源产业表现出相对集中-高度竞争-再次集中的趋势。3.社会福利方面,传统能源企业由于相对稳定的市场竞争结构,并未产生明显的福利损失,新能源企业的生产者剩余则由于过度竞争被迅速侵蚀。因此,单纯的乐观预期无法持续推动企业的降本行为,政策制定者应从市场机制、交易模式和融资支持等多个维度设计能源转型的长期发展框架。This paper extends the traditional AIDS model to the two-stage case,uses the energy consumption and business data of the four major grain traders in the Asia-Pacific region from 1980—2020,calculates the price elasticity of common energy options,and then analyzes the trend of social welfare changes brought about by the energy transformation from the upstream supply structure and the downstream demand elasticity.The results show that:First,in terms of demand elasticity,common energy options show a low-high-low trend with the change of the industry cycle.The new energy industry has entered a mature period,the original price leverage will gradually lose its effect.Second,in terms the supply structure,traditional fossil energy sources show a relatively stable and centralized supply structure,while the new energy industry shows a trend of relative concentration-high-competition-concentration again.Finally,in terms of social welfare,traditional energy companies do not incur significant welfare losses due to the relatively stable competitive market structure,while the producer surplus of new energy enterprises is then rapidly eroded due to excessive competition.Therefore,pure optimistic expectation cannot continuously promote enterprises'cost reduction behavior.Policymakers should design a long-term development framework of energy transformation from multiple dimensions such as market mechanism,trading mode and financing support.

关 键 词：能源转型 价格弹性 福利效应 阶段化AIDS模型 

分 类 号：F113.3[经济管理—国际贸易]