基于关键气象因子的茂名市早稻产量预报模型  

Forecast model of early rice yield in Maoming based on key meteorological factors

作　　者：李剑金 梁冰 陈冰[1] 黄浩 王洁远 何泽华 陈蔚烨 LI Jianjin;LIANG Bing;CHEN Bing;HUANG Hao;WANG Jiieyuan;HE Zehua;CHEN Weiye(Huazhou Meteorological Bureau,Guangdong Huazhou 525100,China;Maoming Meteorological Bureau,Guangdong Maoming 525100,China)

机构地区：[1]化州市气象局,广东化州525100 [2]茂名市气象局,广东茂名525100

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2023年第4期121-125,共5页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广东省气象局科技项目"气候变化对茂名水稻产量的影响研究"。

摘　　要：利用茂名市农业气象观测站早稻观测资料、地面气象观测资料,采用统计分析法,确定茂名市影响早稻产量的关键气象因子,运用多元线性回归方法建立茂名市早稻产量预测模型。结果表明,影响茂名市早稻产量的关键气象因子为6月下旬相对湿度、6月上旬日照和5月中旬雨量。经检验,建立的茂名市早稻产量模型对近两年预报准确度分别为95.8%和85.7%,可满足农业气象服务需求。Using the early rice data and surface meteorological data of Maoming agricultural meteorological observation station,the key meteorological factors affecting the yield of early rice in Maoming City were identified by correlation analysis and the prediction model of the early rice yield was established by stepwise regression analysis.The results show that the key meteorological factors affecting the early rice yield in Maoming City are relative humidity in late June,sunshine in early June and rainfall in mid-May;the accuracy of the established early rice yield model in Maoming City for the past two years is 95.8% and 85.7%,respectively,which can satisfy the demand for agricultural meteorological services.

关 键 词：关键气象因子 茂名 早稻产量 SPSS 产量预报模型 

分 类 号：S165[农业科学—农业气象学]