分离主义运动中的国际干预——以印尼西巴布亚分离主义运动为例  

Separatist Movement and External Intervention——A Case Study of West Papua Separatist Movement in Indonesia

作　　者：沈予加 赵哲元 SHEN Yujia;ZHAO Zheyuan(School of International Studies,Sichuan University,Chengdu,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学国际关系学院 [2]成都市—四川大学“一带一路”教育协同创新研究中心

出　　处：《东南亚研究》2023年第6期104-123,157,158,共22页Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：2022年国家社会科学基金一般项目“澳大利亚对华政策转向及影响研究”(22BGJ055)。

摘　　要：在分离主义冲突中母国与分离主义势力力量悬殊的情况下,作为区别于母国和分离族群的外部国家行为体,第三方国家的干预对分离主义运动的走向具有至关重要的作用。过去,学者们往往围绕单一驱动因素对第三方国家的干预进行解释,组态视角与多变量、复杂因果的思维方式尚未得到足够的关注。本文基于印尼西巴布亚的案例,以情感性驱动力和工具性驱动力为理论框架对第三方国家干预的动因进行质性比较分析(QCA),以把握多重驱动因素共存时相互之间的复杂互动关系。本文指出,情感性和工具性驱动力共同作用于第三方国家的立场选择。族群纽带是第三方国家支持西巴布亚分离主义的必要非充分条件和最重要的情感性驱动因素,但是工具性驱动力对于国家立场选择的影响具有优先性。无论是否受到情感性驱动力的影响,第三方国家由于受到维护地缘安全稳定、保护自身免受分离主义威胁等现实需求的驱动而倾向于支持印尼政府,而人权以及经贸因素并不是国家立场选择的重要考量。Third-party states refer to state actors that are external from the home state and separatist groups.When there is a huge disparity in strength between the home state and the separatist group,the intervention of third-party states is crucial to the trajectory of the separatist movement.Existing studies tend to provide explanations for third-party intervention with single causal factors,but the configurational perspective and multi-variable approach has not yet received enough attention.In order to grasp the complex interactions among multiple factors when they coexist,this article uses West Papua separatism as a case and conducts a qualitative comparative analysis(QCA) based on the analytical framework of affective and instrumental motives.We argue that affective and instrumental motives jointly affect the third-party state's stance.Ethnic ties serve as a necessary but not sufficient condition as well as the most important affective factor for thirdparty intervention in West Papua,but instrumental motive has priority in influencing the stance of states.Whether affected by affective motive or not,states tend to support the Indonesian government due to realistic concerns such as geopolitics and self-preservation from separatism,while human rights and economic factors are not important considerations in the choice of stance.

关 键 词：分离主义 国际干预 印尼 西巴布亚 第三方国家 质性比较分析 

分 类 号：D834.231[政治法律—政治学]