实时水雨情对长江流域堤防管涌动态安全评估方法研究  

Study on the Dynamic Safety Assessment Method of Piping in Dike Works of the Yangtze River Basin based on Real-time Water and Rain Conditions

作　　者：朱胜强 ZHU Shengqiang(Tongling City Public Utilities Management Office,Tongling 244000,China)

机构地区：[1]铜陵市公用事业管理处,安徽铜陵244000

出　　处：《河南水利与南水北调》2023年第11期29-31,共3页Henan Water Resources & South-to-North Water Diversion

摘　　要：为有效解决水雨情因素对于长江流域堤防工程管涌的影响,有效掌控堤防工程管涌险情的发展动态,实现对堤防工程险情的精准预防,保障堤防工程的安全运行,文章以长江流域存在管涌隐患的堤防工程为对象,结合实际工程,采用危险因素综合分析的方式为依据,建立针对长江流域堤防工程管涌险情的实时水雨情影响结果的动态评估系统,应用灵敏度分析、层次分析法(AHP)对不同因素进行实施科学分析及主观赋权,后对评估结果进行融合最终获取具有真实效用的动态安全评估结果。研究结果显示:通过管涌安全评估指标体系对长江流域堤防工程进行建模分析,可有效获取基于水雨情条件下的施工因素、地质环境及水文因素对于堤防工程的动态影响,评估结果与实际具有一致性,所采用方法合理、有效。In order to effectively solve the impact of water and rain conditions on the piping of the dike works in the Yangtze River basin,effectively control the development trend of the piping hazards in the dike works,achieve accurate prevention of the dike works,and ensure the safe operation of the dike works,this article takes embankment engineering with hidden piping risks in the Yangtze River Basin as the object.Based on practical engineering and a comprehensive analysis of risk factors,a dynamic evaluation system for real-time water and rain impact results of piping hazards in the Yangtze River Basin embankment project is established.Sensitivity analysis and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)are applied to carry out scientific analysis and subjective weighting on different factors,and then the evaluation results are fused to finally obtain the dynamic safety evaluation results with real utility.The results show that by modeling and analyzing the embankment engineering in the Yangtze River Basin based on the piping safety evaluation index system,the dynamic impact of construction factors,geological environment,and hydrological factors on embankment engineering under water and rain conditions can be effectively obtained.The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,and the methods adopted are reasonableand effective.

关 键 词：堤防工程 管涌 长江流域 水雨情 安全评估 

分 类 号：TV8[水利工程—水利水电工程]