耕地细碎化对农户家庭兼业化的影响及机制  

The Impact of Cultivated Land Fragmentation on Part-time Behavior of Farmers in China

作　　者：王兆林 吕秋杭 吴月 王营营 WANG Zhaoin;LYU Qiuhang;WU Yue;WANG Yingying(Institute for Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle Construction,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Public Administration,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆400067 [2]重庆工商大学公共管理学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2024年第1期73-83,共11页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271280);国家社会科学基金一般项目(20BJY120);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS23535)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探讨耕地细碎化对农户家庭兼业化的影响及机制,为推动土地适度规模化经营和保障农民收入提供决策参考。研究方法:基于全国农村固定观察点2009—2020年的12期面板数据,采用随机森林模型筛选变量,实证检验了耕地细碎化对农户家庭兼业化程度的影响及机制。研究结果:(1)耕地细碎化显著促进了农户家庭兼业化。经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立。(2)机制检验结果表明,耕地细碎化可以通过提高农业生产成本、降低种植业收入影响农户家庭兼业化程度。(3)异质性分析发现,耕地细碎化对农户家庭兼业化的促进作用在二兼农户、“离农”氛围浓郁以及位于丘陵山区的村庄中更为突出。研究结论:应从推动土地适度规模化经营、促进种植业生产节本增效以及因地制宜保障农户差异化生计需求等方面破解耕地细碎零散、农户分化延缓的问题,从而推动农业现代化发展,保障国家粮食安全。The purpose of this study is to explore the mechanism that cultivated land fragmentation affect part-time behavior of farmers,to provide the references for moderate scale operation of land and ensure farmers’income.The research methods are as follows.Based on the 12-period panel data of the national rural fixed observation point from 2009 to 2020,this study used the random forest model to screen variables,and empirically tested the impact and mechanism of cultivated land fragmentation on farmers’part-time behavior.The results showed that:1)the fragmentation of cultivated land significantly promoted the degree of part-time farmers.After a series of robustness tests,this finding was still valid.2)The results of mechanism test showed that cultivated land fragmentation could affect farmers’part-time by increasing agricultural production costs and reducing planting income.3)Heterogeneity analysis found that the promotion effect of cultivated land fragmentation on farmers’part-time employment was more prominent in second-time farmers,strong‘off-farm’atmosphere and villages located in hilly and mountainous areas.In conclusion,we should solve the problems of fragmented cultivated land and delayed differentiation of farmers from the aspects of promoting moderate scale operation of land,promoting cost-saving and efficiency-increasing of planting production,and ensuring differentiated livelihood needs of farmers according to local conditions,to promote the development of agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain safety.

关 键 词：耕地细碎化 农户兼业化 机器学习 影响机制 

分 类 号：F323.6[经济管理—产业经济]