超大城市气候适应性规划技术体系及应用——以北京为例  

Technical System and Application of Climate Adaptation Planning for Megacities:Taking Beijing as an Example

作　　者：石晓冬[1,2] 黄晓春 高雅[3] 张佳怡[4] SHI Xiaodong;HUANG Xiaochun;GAO Ya;ZHANG Jiayi

机构地区：[1]北京市城市规划设计研究院 [2]首都区域空间规划研究北京市重点实验室 [3]北京市城市规划设计研究院公共空间与公共艺术设计所 [4]北京市城市规划设计研究院规划研究室

出　　处：《城市学报》2023年第5期105-113,共9页Journal of Urban Sciences

摘　　要：本文依据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告提出的以“风险”为核心的决策理论基础,辨析了国际前沿适应理论,总结了国际机构适应性规划框架,分析了主要国际大城市的气候适应性规划案例,明确了适应性规划的五项重要内容。这五项内容包括:气候变化趋势分析与预测、风险与脆弱性评估、适应能力评价指标体系、适应性规划策略和适应性规划实施。提出了“预测-评估-规划-实施”的“四部曲”式气候适应性规划技术路线,构建了系统完整的气候适应性规划技术体系。在具体应用上,首先以北京为研究对象,对北京市域范围内气候风险区划及适应能力进行全面扫描,进而构建全方位、多险种的策略体系;然后进一步将视角从市域深入社区,并在社区尺度探索人与建成环境并重的气候适应性规划方法;最后在首都核心区进行具体实践。基于以上探索性研究,提出北京在城乡规划体系中体现气候适应性的策略建议。This article,based on the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),presents a decision-making theory with"risk"at its core.It analyzes international cutting-edge adaptation theories,summarizes the adaptive planning frameworks of international institutions,examines climate adaptation planning cases in major international cities,and defines five crucial elements of adaptive planning.These five elements include trend analysis and prediction of climate change,risk and vulnerability assessment,adaptation capacity indicator system,adaptive planning strategies,and adaptive planning implementation.The article proposes a"four-step"climate adaptation planning technical route of"prediction-assessment-planning-implementation"and constructs a comprehensive climate adaptation planning technical system.In specific applications,it first focuses on Beijing,conducting a comprehensive scan of climate risk zoning and adaptive capacity within the municipal scope,subsequently constructing a comprehensive and multihazard strategy system.It then extends the perspective from municipal to community levels,exploring for a climate adaptation planning method that emphasizes both people and the built environment at the community scale.Finally,specific practices are carried out in the core area of the capital.Based on these exploratory studies,strategic recommendations are put forward for Beijing to incorporate climate adaptability into its urban and rural planning system.

关 键 词：应对气候变化 气候适应性规划 风险脆弱性评估 实施 经济测算 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] F205[经济管理—国民经济]