美国的台海战略及其地缘意图  

US Taiwan Strait Strategy and Its Geopolitical Intentions

作　　者：陈先才[1,2] 钟志成 Chen Xiancai;Zhong Zhicheng

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究中心 [2]厦门大学台湾研究院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2023年第12期36-57,161,162,共24页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目《“一国两制”台湾方案研究》(项目编号19ZDA128)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在深度推进对华竞争的大背景下,美国遵循地缘政治的逻辑,加紧推进“印太”安全框架下的台海战略。美国企图以台海为地缘战略支点,构造纵贯边缘地带的对华遏制轴线,以台海安全态势促进周边地缘焦点的战略联动,旨在实现低烈度、高频次、可持续的对华战略消耗。当前,美国台海战略的策动面向包括跨区位的盟伴体系纵合、跨功能的遏华战略整合以及跨认知的排华体系融合,由此综合构造起以诱华消耗为导向的安全耦合螺旋。但是,美国的台海战略面临多维性困局,其遏华效能有限。美国政治极化趋势、中美实力消长态势、外部环境的现实局势分别在政策制定、战略执行、实施效果方面对美国的台海战略构成制约,使其在边缘地带的地缘战略策动难以为继。Amidst the deepening strategic competition between China and the United States,the United States has accelerated its Taiwan Strait strategy under the Indo–Pacific security framework,which follows the logic of geopolitics.The United States attempts to use the Taiwan Strait as a geostrategic fulcrum in the rimland,use the security situation in the Taiwan Strait to promote strategic linkage in surrounding geopolitical focal points,and achieve lowintensity,high-frequency,and sustainable strategic consumption against China.The main strategic path of the US Taiwan Strait strategy includes consolidating alliances across regions,integrating containment strategies across functions,and aligning anti-China systems across perceptions.The above layout constructs a security coupling spiral in the rimland areas oriented to induce China to consume.However,the US Taiwan Strait strategy faces multifaceted challenges,constraining its effectiveness in containing China.Fluctuations in the power balance between China and the US,shifts in the external environment,and internal polarization within US politics impose limitations at strategic execution,efficacy,and decision-making levels,making the United States'geopolitical layout in the rimland areas difficult to sustain.

关 键 词：美国台海战略 地缘战略 战略策动 台海安全 

分 类 号：D822.371.2[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—外交学]