美国两党对台政策的差异及影响  

The Differences and Implications of Taiwan Policy Between the US Democratic and Republican Parties

作　　者：张文宗[1] 常方煜 Zhang Wenzong;Chang Fangyu

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2023年第12期58-74,162,共18页

基　　金：2022年国家社科基金重点项目“美国政治生态变化和两党对华政策比较研究”(项目批准号:22AGJ011)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：美国实施“全政府”对华战略,导致民主、共和两党在“以台制华”上形成共识,不断虚化掏空“一个中国政策”,严重损害中美关系的政治基础。同时,美国两党在对台政策思想上存在一定差异。共和党的特朗普政府更极端和直接,而民主党的拜登政府“说一套,做一套”的两面性突出。民主党议员所提涉台议案相对较少,而共和党议员则在提出和推动涉台议案上更主动,部分共和党议员甚至抛出支持与中国台湾“复交”的极端议案。两党在对台政策上的差异,与两党在对华政策上的差异相一致,与自由派智囊的对台“战略模糊”和保守派智囊的“战略清晰”相匹配,与民进党当局游说重点的变化也有关系。未来十年,美国两党在“挺台”上的相互竞争将导致台湾问题总体上变得更加危险。2024年美国大选后,如果民主党继续执政将加快推动台湾问题的“国际化”,而如果共和党重新执掌白宫和国会将导致中美博弈更具对抗性。中国台湾“政局”的变化难以从根本上改变台海局势,但将在一定程度上影响中美博弈的烈度。The implementation of the US“whole-of-government”approach toward China has led to the consensus between the Democratic and Republican parties on“using Taiwan to contain China.”The US government has constantly hollowed out the“one-China policy,”which has seriously damaged the political foundation of Sino–US relations.At the same time,there are differences between the two parties in their tactics of using Taiwan,China.The Republican Trump administration is more radical and direct,while the Democratic Biden administration has a two-sided nature of“saying one thing and doing another.”Democratic congressmen have put forward relatively few Taiwan-related bills,while Republican congressmen have taken the initiative in proposing and promoting Taiwan-related bills,and some of them have even thrown out such extreme motions as supporting the“resumption of diplomatic relations”with Taiwan China.The differences of Taiwan policy between the two parties are originated from the policy differences toward China,from the differences between the liberal think tanks appreciating“strategic ambiguity”and the conservative think tanks calling for“strategic clarity,”from the DPP in Taiwan,China striving to carry out lobbying activities in US.In the next 10 years,the two parties of the US will continue to“support Taiwan,”which will make the Taiwan question becoming more dangerous.If the Democratic Party remains in power after the 2024 US election,it will accelerate the“internationalization”of the Taiwan question,while China and the US will get more confronted if the Republican Party returns to power.Although the changes of China Taiwan's“political situation”will hardly fundamentally change the situation in the Taiwan Strait,they will affect the intensity of the Sino–US contest to some degree.

关 键 词：美国 民主党 共和党 台湾问题 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]