气候变化的灾害效应与科学挑战  

Disaster effects of climate change and the associated scientific challenges

作　　者：王岩[1] 王昊[2] 崔鹏 陈德亮[3] 唐金波 欧廷海[3] 郝建盛 王姣 张国涛 雷雨 伍纯昊[2] Yan Wang;Hao Wang;Peng Cui;Deliang Chen;Jinbo Tang;Tinghai Ou;Jiansheng Hao;Jiao Wang;Guotao Zhang;Yu Lei;Chunhao Wu(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,China;Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,中国科学院山地灾害与地表过程重点实验室,成都610299 [3]Department of Earth Sciences,University of Gothenburg,Gothenburg 40530,Sweden

出　　处：《科学通报》2024年第2期286-300,共15页Chinese Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41941017);第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0906);中国科学院前沿科学重点研究项目(QYZDY-SSWDQC006)资助。

摘　　要：自然灾害是地球系统各圈层相互作用最剧烈的一种表现形式,对人类社会有着深远的影响.气候变化导致的温度升高和降雨增多对灾害发生的水源、物源、能量等条件都有所影响,致使自然灾害出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加;自然灾害间的相互作用变强,促使复合灾害和级联灾害风险均有明显上升.本文归纳总结了自然灾害在强度、频率、持续时间、触发时间与位置、规模或影响范围等方面的变化规律,阐述其对气候变化的响应机制,提出气候变化灾害风险的五大科学挑战,包括:气候变化驱动的圈层相互作用和内外动力耦合致灾机制、跨时空尺度灾害发育规律、极端事件信息感知与数据驱动的风险判识、灾害动力学与风险演化规律、灾害风险管理与韧性社会构建.积极主动地应对这些挑战有助于深化对地球系统的科学理解,适应全球变化,减小灾害风险.Climate change can be observed in various spheres of the Earth’s system,including atmosphere,lithosphere,hydrosphere,biosphere and cryosphere.The interactions among these spheres collectively impact the changes of the climate system.Natural disasters represent the most intense manifestation of the interactions among the Earth’s spheres,and they have profound impacts on human society.In this study,we discuss the impact of climate change on natural disasters by examining the characteristics of climate change-induced hazards and the activity patterns of natural disasters.Furthermore,the response mechanisms of natural disasters to climate change are elaborated by exploring the formation and evolution of different types of natural disasters.Additionally,the future trends of disaster-pregnant environment under climate change are estimated,and the future trends of disaster risk are revealed by jointly considering the exposure and vulnerability.The main driving forces and formation conditions of natural disasters vary greatly among different geomorphic units,but they can generally be classified into three categories:Thermally driven disasters,gravitationally driven disasters,and hydrologically driven disasters.For example,heatwaves,tropical cyclones,tornadoes,and wildfires are common examples of thermally driven disasters which are forced by high temperatures or great thermal gradients.In addition,gravitationally driven disasters mainly occur in mountainous areas with significant differences in elevation,such as landslides,snow-ice avalanches and debris flows.The tsunamis caused by seabed movement are also gravity disasters.Furthermore,the disasters such as droughts,regional floods and sea-level rise are primarily driven by the changes in hydraulic conditions,and thus are classified as hydrologically driven disasters.In the context of enhanced climate change,the interactions among multiple spheres of the Earth’s system are strengthened,causing the disaster-pregnant environment to evolve towards a more vulnerable st

关 键 词：气候变化 自然灾害 灾害效应 响应机制 科学挑战 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]