Impact of climate change on food security in the Central Asian countries  

作　　者：Fang SU Yu LIU Lvfan CHEN Rustam OROZBAEV Liangcheng TAN 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China [2]School of Economics and Management,Shaanxi University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710021,China [3]State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology,Institute of Earth Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Xi’an 710061,China [4]Institute of Geology,National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyz Republic,Bishkek 720040,Kyrgyzstan [5]Institute of Global Environmental Change,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an 710049,China

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2024年第1期268-280,共13页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：This work was supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.xbzg-zdsys-202217);the Shandong Provincial Special Fund(Grant No.LSKJ202203300).

摘　　要：The current and potential impacts of global warming have generated widespread concerns about food security among all sectors of society.Central Asian countries located deep in the interior of Asia with fragile ecological environments and lower agricultural technology are particularly more prone to severe threats from climate change.Based on panel data acquired in five Central Asian countries from 1990 to 2019,a C-D-C model was developed to study how climate change affects food security in the region and to predict future trends.The study found that the level of food security has generally increased for these five Central Asian countries over the past 30 years,with Kazakhstan and Tajikistan having the highest and lowest food security levels,respectively.The average annual temperature and precipitation exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the region’s food security,with the most positive effect on the food security of Kazakhstan.Extremely high and low temperatures have significantly affected food security in the studied region,with Turkmenistan experiencing the most significant negative impacts.The number of frost days had no significant effect on food security.An analysis of future climate showed that the temperature and precipitation in Central Asia will continue to increase from 2030 to 2090,which will negatively impact the food security of these countries.It is recommended that the Central Asian countries enhance their understanding of climate risks,strengthen scientific climate research,and develop multiple adaptation strategies in advance.Simultaneously,they are encouraged to consolidate international cooperation,reducing greenhouse gas emissions effectively and maintaining the ability to ensure food security.

关 键 词：Global warming Extreme climate Food security Future forecasts Five Central Asian countries 

分 类 号：F316.11[经济管理—产业经济] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]