高潮位洪水的致灾机制、风险评估与预报评述  

High tide flooding:Drivers,risk assessment,and prediction

作　　者：李思达 方佳毅 周巍[4] 蒋廷臣 柳林涛 冯曦 LI Sida;FANG Jiayi;ZHOUWei;JIANG Tingchen;LIU Lintao;FENG Xi(State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth's Dynamics,Innovation Academy for Precision Measurement Science and Technology,CAS,Wuhan 430077,China;School of Information Science and Technology,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;Institute of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences,Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Urban Wetlands and Regional Change,Hangzhou 311121,China;State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,CAS,Guangzhou 501310,China;School of Marine Technology and Geomatics,Jiangsu Ocean University,Lianyungang 222005,Jiangsu,China;College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 211098,China;Key Laboratory of Coastal Disaster and Defence,Nanjing 211098,China)

机构地区：[1]大地测量与地球动力学国家重点实验室,中国科学院精密测量科学与技术创新研究院,武汉430077 [2]杭州师范大学遥感与地球科学研究院,杭州311121 [3]浙江省城市湿地与区域变化研究重点实验室,杭州311121 [4]热带海洋环境国家重点实验室,中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广州510301 [5]江苏海洋大学海洋技术与测绘学院,江苏连云港222005 [6]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,南京210098 [7]海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2024年第1期190-202,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重大科学仪器设备开发专项(2011YQ120045);国家自然科学基金项目(42001096);浙江省科学技术厅“尖兵”“领雁”项目(2022C03107)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下,由海平面上升带来的长期慢性水患——一种发生于高潮位附近的小型海岸洪水变得愈加频繁,对沿海社会经济和自然环境造成一定影响,是当前国际上的研究热点之一。论文梳理了高潮位洪水的定义,并从高潮位洪水驱动因素、影响与风险评估以及高潮位洪水预报3个方面,系统总结了相关研究方法与研究成果的主要进展以及存在的主要问题。未来建议加强沿海地区高潮位洪水的驱动因素、风险评估以及预报的研究工作,包括对高潮位洪水的广泛监测,从驱动因素的变化和驱动因素间的相互作用角度研究高潮位洪水的形成,对沿海关键地区和重要基础设施开展全面的高潮位洪水风险评估研究,开展更加准确可靠的高潮位洪水发生频次、持续时间的预报工作,最终服务于沿海城市高潮位洪水的防灾减灾。High tide flooding(HTF)—a kind of minor coastal flooding that usually occurs near the high tide level,becomes more frequent under climate change.It has a certain impact on the coastal socioeconomic system and natural environment,and is a hot issue in low-lying coastal cities.This article examined the definition of HTF,and systematically summarized the main progress of HTF research in terms of its drivers,impacts,risk assessment,and frequency forecasting.In the future,it is recommended to strengthen the research on the drivers,risk assessment,and forecast of HTF frequency.These include extensive monitoring of HTF,quantifying the role of interactions between factors leading to HTF,comprehensively assessing HTF risk,and accurately predicting HTF frequency.All these works will finally contribute to the disaster prevention and mitigation of HTF in coastal cities.

关 键 词：高潮位洪水 海岸洪水 海平面上升 风险评估 预报模型 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]