基于贝叶斯网络的拉线塔安全性评估方法  

Safety Evaluation Method of Guyed Tower Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：姜岚[1,2] 曹芝滔 唐波 智李[1,2] 陈彬 Jiang Lan;Cao Zhitao;Tang Bo;Zhi Li(2 Chen Bin1,21.College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hubei Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center for Power Transmission Line,Yichang 443002,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学电气与新能源学院,宜昌443002 [2]湖北省输电线路工程技术研究中心,宜昌443002

出　　处：《特种结构》2024年第1期18-24,共7页Special Structures

摘　　要：针对拉线塔安全性的影响因素众多,安全评估受主观性影响较大的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的输电拉线塔安全性评估方法。该方法根据故障树进行构建贝叶斯网络模型,利用拉线塔实际检测数据获取根节点故障状态及其概率,克服了根节点故障概率难以获取的问题。基于贝叶斯网络因果推理,实现拉线塔故障概率计算、致灾因子识别以及故障诊断,实现对拉线塔安全性的分析。通过实例分析表明:基于贝叶斯网络的拉线塔安全性评估方法克服了传统综合评价法主观性强的问题,评估结果与运行情况的一致性较强,可作为拉线塔安全评估的决策工具。In order to solve the problem that there are many factors affecting the safety of guyed towers and the safety evaluation is greatly influenced by subjectivity,a safety evaluation method for guyed tower based on Bayesian network is proposed.This method constructs a Bayesian network model based on the fault tree,and u-ses the actual detection data of guyed tower to obtain the root node fault state and its probability,which over-comes the difficulty in obtaining the root node fault probability.The fault probability calculation,disaster factor identification and fault diagnosis of guyed tower are realized,and the safety analysis of guyed tower is realized through causal reasoning of Bayesian network.The example analysis shows that the safety assessment method based on Bayesian network overcomes the problem of subjectivity of the traditional comprehensive evaluation method,and the evaluation results are consistent with the operation conditions,which can be used as a deci-sion-making tool for the safety assessment of the guyed tower.

关 键 词：拉线塔 安全评估 故障树 贝叶斯网络 重要度 

分 类 号：TU279.7[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]