“鲍莫尔现象”:现实依据、国际启示与相关建议  

The"Baumol Effect":Realistic Basis,International Implications and Related Recommendations

作　　者：周景彤[1] 刘晨 Zhou Jingtong;Liu Chen

机构地区：[1]中国银行研究院,北京100818

出　　处：《西南金融》2023年第12期3-16,共14页Southwest Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新冠肺炎疫情背景下我国产业链转型升级与金融支持研究”(项目编号:20STA060)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近年来,我国第三产业占比明显提升,并与一、二产业逐步拉开差距。同时,近十年来中国经济增速有所放缓,由此引发对于我国经济是否出现“鲍莫尔现象”的讨论。从我国经济发展现状来看,工业、服务业劳动生产率提升空间存在明显差异,服务业占比上升趋势或将持续,我国经济发展中存在“鲍莫尔现象”且可能进一步加剧。从长远来看,为了促进制造业高质量发展,既要把先进制造业占制造业增加值比重作为关键指标,又要维持合理的中低端制造业比重,夯实我国发展成为世界制造强国的根基。未来,应当进一步增强制造业对经济平稳健康发展、塑造我国参与国际合作竞争新优势的支撑能力;同时,着力提升服务业附加值,带动服务业劳动生产率增速提升。In recent years,the proportion of the tertiary industry in China has significantly increased,and the gap with the primary and secondary industries has gradually widened.At the same time,the growth rate of China's economy has slowed down in the past decade,which has sparked discussions on whether there is a"Baumol Ef-fect"in China's economy.From the current situation of China's economic development,there is a clear difference between the industrial and service sectors in terms of the space for improving labor productivity,and the upward trend in the proportion of the service sector may continue,and there is a"Baumol Effect"in China's economic de-velopment,which may be further aggravated.In the long run,in order to promote the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry,it is necessary to take the proportion of advanced manufacturing industries in the val-ue added of manufacturing as a key indicator,while maintaining a reasonable proportion of low and medium-end manufacturing industries,so as to strengthen the foundation for China's development into a world manufacturing power.In the future,the support capacity of the manufacturing industry for the stable and healthy development of the economy and the shaping of new advantages for China's participation in international cooperation and competi-tion should be further strengthened;at the same time,efforts should be made to enhance the value-added of the service industry and to drive up the rate of growth of labor productivity in the service industry.

关 键 词：“鲍莫尔现象” 制造业 服务业 产业链 产业转型升级 全要素生产率 经济增长 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济]