疫情后深圳市生活垃圾产生量的预测及变化分析  

Prediction and Change Analysis of Domestic Waste Generation in Shenzhen after COVID-19

作　　者：唐圣钧[1] 侯斌 TANG Shengjun;HOU Bin(Urban Planning&Design Institute of Shenzhen,Shenzhen Guangdong 518000)

机构地区：[1]深圳市城市规划设计研究院有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《环境卫生工程》2024年第1期94-98,共5页Environmental Sanitation Engineering

摘　　要：疫情后针对生活垃圾产生量的变化,开展预测并对结果进行分析,是地方政府科学制定相关规划、合理布局环卫设施建设的重要依据。因此,立足深圳市疫情前后数据,结合灰色关联度模型、多元线性回归等方法,分析2022—2035年生活垃圾产生量预测值的变化。结果表明,生活垃圾产生量保持逐年增长趋势,规划期末水平年(2035年)的具体数值有一定程度调整。预测到2035年的生活垃圾产生量为45 547 t/d,其中再生资源回收量为14 576 t/d,生活垃圾处理处置量为30 971 t/d。建议各项环卫设施建设可灵活调整设施规模及建设周期,提升城市垃圾处理效能。The results of the changes in domestic waste generation after COVID-19 in Shenzhen was forecast and analyzed,which was an important basis for local governments to scientifically make relevant plansand rationally layout the construction of sanitation facilities.To this end,the changes of the predicted domestic waste generationvalue from 2022 to 2035 was analyzed by combining grey model,multiple linear regression and other methods.The results showed that the output of domestic waste kept increasing year by year,and the specific value of the end of the planning level year(2035)had been adjusted to some extent.It was predicted that the generation of domestic waste in 2035 would be 45547 t/d,among which the recycling amount of regenerated resources would be 14576 t/d,and the disposal amount of domestic waste would be 30971 t/d.It was suggested that the construction of sanitation facilities could adjust the scale and construction period of facilities flexibly to improve the efficiency of domestic waste treatment.

关 键 词：生活垃圾 产生量 多因素分析 灰色模型预测 多元线性回归预测 

分 类 号：X799.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]