全球产业链和货物贸易格局演变及中国应对策略  

Evolution Trends of Global Industrial Chain and Goods Trade Pattern and China's Countermeasures

作　　者：国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所课题组 季剑军[2] Research Group of the Institute of Foreign Economic Studies of the National Development and Reform Commission

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院对外经济研究所新兴经济体研究室,北京100038

出　　处：《亚太经济》2023年第6期1-10,共10页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：2022年国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院重点课题“全球产业链和货物贸易格局演变及发展趋势”阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前,全球产业链逐步进入深度调整期,产业链朝着数字化、低碳化方向重塑,特别是全球新冠疫情暴发以来,产业链内向化、区域化、多元化趋势日益突出,不仅造成商品跨境流动规模下降,导致全球货物贸易增速低迷,也对货物贸易商品流向、贸易模式等产生深远影响。未来应准确研判全球产业链的重塑方向及其对全球货物贸易格局的影响,准确分析中国在全球产业链和货物贸易格局中面临的机遇与挑战,中国应在产业端和贸易端同时施策,实现对外贸易与产业结构相互促进的正向反馈机制。The current global industrial chain has been going through a period of deep adjustment,and the in-dustrial chain is being reshaped in the direction of digitalization and low-carbon.Especially since the outbreak of the global COVID-19,the trend of internalization,regionalization and diversification of the industrial chain has become increasingly prominent,which not only causes a decline in the cross-border flow of goods,leading to a downturn in the growth of global trade in goods,but also has a profound impact on the flow of goods and trade patterns.In the fu-ture,we should accurately assess the direction of reshaping the global industrial chain and its impact on the global pat-tern of trade in goods,as well as the opportunities and challenges faced by China in the global industrial chain and pat-tern of trade in goods.We should implement policies at both the industrial and trade ends to achieve a positive feed--back mechanism for mutual promotion between foreign trade and industrial structure.

关 键 词：货物贸易 产业链 演变 趋势 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]