贸易政策不确定性的宏观经济效应量化分析  

Macroeconomic Effects"Quantitative"Analysis of Trade Policy Uncertainty

作　　者：刘金全[1] 申瑛琦 张龙[1] Liu Jin-quan;Shen Ying-qi;Zhang Long

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《亚太经济》2023年第6期51-61,共11页Asia-Pacific Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“结构性货币政策‘时度效’与工具箱动态管理研究”(23BJY202)。

摘　　要：在对贸易政策不确定性的波动转折典型事实解析基础上,基于贸易政策不确定性指数的走势进行收缩阶段划分,进一步通过SV-TVP-FAVAR模型量化分析贸易政策不确定性对宏观经济变量的动态冲击影响,重点刻画不同阶段宏观经济变量的响应特征。结果表明:加入WTO20年来,中国贸易政策不确定性波动转折对内外部冲击反应较好,其走势基本符合当期阶段性贸易市场环境;中国贸易政策不确定性基本呈现宏观经济负向冲击特征,不同政策目标的响应状态存在差异;在贸易政策不确定性冲击下,中国宏观经济变量存在阶段差异化响应特征,上升期内贸易政策不确定性的负向影响比较显著,呈现“扩大”效应特征。With analyzing the typical events of trade policy uncertainty's volatility transition,it divides the con-traction stages based on the trend of trade policy uncertainty index.Furthermore,the SV-TVP-FAVAR model is used to"quantify"the dynamic impact of trade policy uncertainty on macroeconomic variables,focusing on the response characteristics of macroeconomic variables at different stages.The research results show that:since accession to the WTO 20 years ago,Chinese trade policy uncertainty's fluctuations have responded well to internal and external shocks,and the trend of trade policy uncertainty is in line with the current phased trade environment.Chinese trade policy uncertainty has negative macroeconomic spillover effects,and the response characteristics of different policy objectives are different.Under the shocks of trade policy uncertainty,the Chinese macroeconomic variables have characteristics of stage heterogeneous response,and the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty is relatively significant during the rising period,showing the characteristics of"expanding"effect.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 溢出效应 SV-TVP-FAVAR模型 

分 类 号：F710[经济管理—产业经济]