RCEP自贸区内中国农产品进口前景研究——基于时变随机前沿引力模型  

Research on the Prospects of China’s Agricultural Product Imports in the RCEP Free Trade Zone—— Based on a Time-varying Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

作　　者：杨其乐 YANG Qile(School of Economics and Management,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin,Guangxi 541006,China)

机构地区：[1]广西师范大学经济管理学院,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《武汉职业技术学院学报》2023年第6期75-82,共8页Journal of Wuhan Polytechnic

摘　　要：《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)的成功签订为推进区域合作和促进中国农产品进口贸易提供了良好契机。本文基于时变随机前沿引力模型和显示性竞争比较优势指数,计算出贸易拓展空间(TS)和产品竞争力(CA)两项指标,利用波士顿矩阵分析法测算RCEP成员国农产品在中国市场的贸易前景。结果表明,在农产品市场,中国与RCEP大多数成员国贸易前景可期;在农产品细分市场,中国与RCEP成员国贸易前景各不相同,其中,果蔬类产品前景最光明,食品加工类产品前景最暗淡。为确保我国农产品进口安全,中国应坚定不移推进农产品进口多元化策略,加强同RCEP成员国合作,实现互惠互利、合作共赢。The successful signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)provides a good opportunity for promoting regional cooperation and promoting China's agricultural product import trade.This article is based on the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the explicit competitive advantage index,calculating two indicators:trade expansion space(TS)and product competitiveness(CA).The Boston matrix analysis method is used to calculate the trade prospects of agricultural products from RCEP member countries in the Chinese market.The results indicate that in the agricultural product market,the trade prospects between China and most RCEP member countries are promising.In the agricultural product segmentation market,the trade prospects between China and RCEP member countries are different,with fruit and vegetable products having the brightest prospects and food processing products having the dimmest prospects.To ensure the safety of China's agricultural product imports,China should firmly promote the diversification strategy of agricultural product imports,strengthen cooperation with RCEP member countries,and achieve mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

关 键 词：RCEP 农产品进口 贸易前景 时变随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]