基于自然要素的大尺度河流水环境承载力评价与预测  

Evaluation and Prediction of Water Environment Carrying Capacity in Large-scale RiversBased on Natural Elements

作　　者：田雪琪 王华[1,2] 曾一川 陈经纬 李家乐 TIAN Xue-qi;WANG Hua;ZENG Yi-chuan;CHEN Jing-wei;LI Jia-le1(College of Environment,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Integrated Regulation and Resource Development on Shallow Lake of Ministry of Education,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学环境学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学浅水湖泊综合治理与资源开发教育部重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《环境科技》2024年第1期34-39,55,共7页Environmental Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179064).

摘　　要：水环境承载力是保护水环境的重要指标,用于水资源的合理规划与管理,确保水环境的可持续利用。为探讨适用于大型河流的更为系统全面的水环境承载力评价指标体系,在现有水环境承载力研究的基础上,选取长江干流为研究对象,以“自然要素、水资源、生态环境、社会经济”4个方面作为指标层,共选取25个具体指标,运用改良的主成分分析法对长江干流水环境承载力的时空尺度变化趋势进行了评价,通过ARIMA模型预测了长江干流未来3年水环境承载力的发展情况。结果表明,综合指标分值在时间尺度上的变化整体呈上升趋势,综合得分由-1.66逐渐上升为1.26,从Ⅳ级(差)上升为Ⅰ级(优),未来3年将继续保持小幅度上升趋势。The water environmental carrying capacity is an important indicator for protecting the water environment,used for the rational planning and management of water resources to ensure their sustainable utilization.In order to explore a more systematic and comprehensive evaluation index system for water environmental carrying capacity applicable to large rivers,this study selects the main stream of the Yangtze River as the research object.Four aspects,namely,“natural factors,water resources,ecological environment,and socio-economy,”are taken as indicator layers,and a total of 25 specific indicators are selected.The improved principal component analysis method is used to evaluate the spatiotemporal changes in the water environmental carrying capacity of the main stream of the Yangtze River.Furthermore,the ARIMA model is used to predict the development of the water environmental carrying capacity for the next three years.The results show that the comprehensive indicator score has an overall upward trend over time.The comprehensive score gradually increases from-1.66 to 1.26,indicating an improvement from Grade IV(poor)to Grade I(excellent).It is projected to continue with a slight upward trend over the next three years.

关 键 词：长江干流 水环境承载力 主成分分析 时空变化特征 模型预测 

分 类 号：X8[环境科学与工程—环境工程]