新形势下珠江流域防洪规划若干问题思考  

Thinking on some key issues of flood control planning of the Pearl River Basin under new circumstances

作　　者：何用 李旭东 张印 He Yong;Li Xudong;Zhang Yin

机构地区：[1]水利部珠江水利委员会珠江科学研究院,广州510610

出　　处：《中国水利》2024年第2期46-51,共6页China Water Resources

摘　　要：变化环境下的水文情势变化认识、洪水风险识别和流域防洪标准协同等,是新形势下优化布局防洪工程体系、安排洪水出路、提升流域防洪能力面临的基础性问题。针对珠江流域防洪新形势,分析了设计洪水推求、洪水风险评估相关方法的现状和存在的不足,初步探讨了基于水文水动力模型和设计降雨的变化环境下设计洪水推求方法,提出了考虑洪水出槽的洪水风险精细化识别方法,并就如何统筹流域上下游、实现防洪标准的协同提升进行了初步阐述,以期为新形势下珠江流域防洪规划提供参考。The basic problems in optimizing the layout of flood control engineering system,arranging flood outlet and improving the flood control capacity of river basin are the understanding of the change of hydrological regime,the identification of flood risk and the coordination of flood control standards in the changing environment.According to the new situation of flood control in the Pearl River Basin,the present situation and shortcomings of related methods of design flood prediction and flood risk assessment are analyzed.Based on the hydrological dynamic model and the changing environment of the designed rainfall,the design flood prediction method is preliminarily discussed,and the refined flood risk identification method considering the flood channel is proposed,and how to coordinate the upstream and downstream of the river basin and achieve the coordinated improvement of flood control standards is preliminarily elaborated,in order to provide reference for the flood control planning of the Pearl River Basin under the new situation.

关 键 词：设计洪水 洪水风险 标准协同 珠江流域 

分 类 号：TV87[水利工程—水利水电工程]