碳中和背景下世界能源转型与中国式现代化能源革命  

World Energy Transformation and China's Modern Energy Revolution under Carbon Neutrality Background

作　　者：邹才能 熊波[1] 李士祥 马锋 潘松圻[1] 刘翰林 张国生 赵群[2] 关春晓[1] Zou Caineng;Xiong Bo;Li Shixiang;Ma Feng;Pan Songqi;Liu Hanlin;Zhang Guosheng;Zhao Qun;Guan Chunxiao(CNPC Shenzhen New Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中石油深圳新能源研究院有限公司 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《石油科技论坛》2024年第1期1-17,共17页PETROLEUM SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORUM

基　　金：国家自然科学基金“陆相致密砂岩二氧化碳驱油过程中孔隙保存机理研究”(编号:42072187);中国石油天然气集团有限公司重大科技专项“陆相致密砂岩二氧化碳驱油过程中孔隙保存机理研究”之课题5“CCUS/CCS埋存地质体选区评价及监测关键技术研究”(编号:2021ZZ01-05)。

摘　　要：全球碳中和共识与地区冲突加剧的背景下,新能源已成为各个国家实现能源安全和绿色发展的主要方向。以风能、光能、地热能、氢能、储能、可控核聚变等为代表的新能源技术和规模优势正在不断增强,低成本风能、太阳能、储能将支撑全球能源转型,新能源生产与利用进入快速发展时期,2022年世界新能源消费平均占比达18.2%,预计2050年占比达到55%左右。世界能源在资源、消费地域、技术发展、人均消费量、节能领域、碳排放等存在分布不均的情况,化石能源低碳化提速、新能源规模化提速、能源管理智慧化提速的“三化提速”推动世界能源加快转型。中国式现代化强调人与自然和谐共生,积极稳妥推进碳达峰碳中和,深入推进能源革命,坚持“六性原则”,即能源生产的“独立性”、能源供给的“绿色性”、能源储备的“安全性”、能源消费的“高效性”、能源管理的“智慧性”、能源成本的“经济性”,加快规划建设新能源为主、新电力为主、新储能为主、新智慧能源为主“四个为主”绿色智慧的新型能源体系,确保能源安全。目前中国是能源大国但不是能源强国,能源消费结构有待进一步优化。中国能源安全发展新战略是能源消费革命、能源供给革命、能源技术革命、能源体制革命、全方面加强国际合作的“四个革命、一个合作”,推动中国能源革命和能源供应格局转变,由2022年含碳化石能源消费占比80%以上、碳基能源CO_(2)排放80%以上,转变到2060年非碳新能源消费占比80%以上、CO_(2)排放减少80%以上。加快新能源革命是建设能源强国、实现中国能源独立与民族复兴的战略选择,对实现“双碳”目标、构建新型绿色能源体系与建立绿色生态地球意义重大。Under the background of global consensus on carbon neutrality and more intensified regional conflicts,new energy has become the main direction for various countries to implement energy security and low-carbon development goals.New energy technology with the advantages for its large-scale application is increasingly consolidated,typically wind energy,solar energy,geothermal energy,energy storage and controllable nuclear fusion etc.The cost-effective wind energy,solar energy and energy storage will support global energy transformation while new energy production and application enters rapid development era.The proportion for the world’s new energy consumption was 18.2 percent on average in 2022.This figure is estimated to reach about 55 percent in 2050.Global energy is unevenly distributed in resources,consumption,technological development,per-capita consumption,energy conservation and carbon emission.Global energy transformation is accelerated in three areas-decarbonization of fossil energy,large scale application of new energy and intelligence of energy management.China’s modernization emphasized harmony and coexistence between the humanity and nature,active and steady implementing of carbon peak and carbon neutrality and energetic acceleration of energy revolution.China has adhered to the six principles,namely independence in energy production,greenness of energy supply,security of energy reserves,high-efficiency in energy consumption,intelligence of energy management,and economy of energy cost.To ensure energy security,China accelerated construction of a green and intelligent new energy system which is focused on new energy,new electric power,new energy storage and new intelligent energy.Currently,China is a large energy country but not an energy power yet.It is necessary to further optimize nation’s energy consumption mix.China has adopted a new strategy featuring Four Reforms and One Cooperation,refer to improve the consumption revolution,build a more diversified energy supply structure,improve energy t

关 键 词：碳中和 新能源 能源转型 新型能源体系 能源革命 能源消费 能源安全 能源独立 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F416.2