重构实验方法下的公共政策评估——兼论其在高等教育扩招政策评估中的应用验证  

Reconstructing Public Policy Evaluation Using Experimental Methods——A Validation of its Application to the Evaluation of Higher Education Expansion Policies

作　　者：臧雷振 朱逸飞 温宇涵 Zang Leizhen;Zhu Yifei;Wen Yuhan(College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100089;Department of Politics and Public Administration,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学公共管理与法学院 [2]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100089 [3]香港大学政治与公共行政学系,中国香港特别行政区999077

出　　处：《中国行政管理》2023年第11期148-156,共9页Chinese Public Administration

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“互联网发展与国家治理体系和治理能力现代化研究”(编号:22&ZD028)。

摘　　要：政策“试点-扩散”模式是中国政策制定、实施过程的重要经验和路径,其兼顾政策改进、政策知识积累与政策演化的不同维度,有利于提升政策的科学性,但这也对政策评估的研究方法提出了更高的要求。本文通过对实验研究方法的认识论逻辑考察,从因果关系出发梳理政策评估标准,强调政策评估中存在随机控制实验和环状评估两种方法路径,后者偏向于采用因果设计路径,可更好地探求政策资源分配、政策阻断等异质性政策评估中的方法适用性。文章最后以中国高等教育扩招政策的扩散过程为例,反思“试点-扩散”类政策评估中的数据要求,分析了高等教育扩招政策大规模扩散之后的政策效果,认为分配机制提高了家庭对教育回报的期望,而阻断机制则展现了城乡不同主体的行为遵从差异。论文的环状评估方法设计和案例应用为提升中国本土化政策制定的科学性、实施的有效性与评估的针对性作出了一定学理贡献。The policy“pilot-diffusion”model is an important experience and path in China's policy process,taking into account the different dimensions of policy improvement,policy knowledge accumulation and policy evolution,which is beneficial to the formulation of scientific policies,but also puts forward higher pertinence and effectiveness requirements for policy evaluation methods.How to scientifically evaluate policy effects under the“pilot-diffusion”model?This article examines the epistemological logic of experimental research methods and analyzes policy evaluation standards from the perspective of cause and effect,allowing researchers to connect more evidence and form a more convincing evaluation plan.The authors emphasize that there are two methods in policy evaluation:random controlled experiments and circular evaluation.The latter prefers the causal design approach,which can better explore the applicability of methods in heterogeneous policy evaluations such as policy resource allocation and policy blocking.This article finally takes the process of China's higher education policy expansion as an example to reflect on the data requirements in policy evaluation and achieve a better understanding of the policy effects after the large-scale diffusion of higher education enrollment expansion policies.The paper's circular evaluation method design and case application have laid an academic foundation for improving the scientific level of China's localization policy formulation,the effectiveness of implementation,and the pertinence of evaluation.

关 键 词：实验方法 政策评估 “试点-扩散” 教育扩招政策 

分 类 号：D035[政治法律—政治学]