“双碳”目标下政府补贴、需求替代与减排效应——来自中国乘用车市场的证据  

Government Subsidies,Demand Substitution and Emission Reduction Effects under the Dual Carbon Target:Evidence from China’s Passenger Car Market

作　　者：郭晓丹[1] 王帆 GUO Xiaodan;WANG Fan(Center for Industrial and Business Organization,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学产业组织与企业组织研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2024年第2期131-150,共20页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(22AJY020);教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790006)的资助。

摘　　要：本文基于中国乘用车市场微观数据,应用结构估计方法,结合汽车需求替代和发电结构评价新能源汽车补贴政策的减排净效应,并模拟“双碳”目标下的减排效果。研究发现,新能源汽车购车补贴较好实现了市场推广的政策目标,贡献了新能源汽车销量的48.72%,但其中仅31.72%的增量来自对燃油车的替代,其余68.28%则来自补贴刺激的额外新增;补贴在减排方面存在双向作用,替代效应通过替代燃油车减少了尾气排放,直接效应刺激了新能源汽车额外新增,增加了用电排放,由于替代效应弱于直接效应,在当前发电结构下最终导致21个样本省市碳排放净增加941.39万吨,可见补贴并不是一项有效的减排政策。同时,补贴政策的减排效果与发电结构密切相关,发电结构达到“碳中和”时补贴政策会净减排1000.05万吨。基于此,本文提出,汽车行业减排的政策设计应关注需求替代与能源背景,适应能源结构调整的同时促进新能源汽车有效替代燃油车,以推进“双碳”目标的实现。New energy vehicles provide a new channel for emissions reduction in the automotive industry,and their emission reduction effect depends on their efficiency as substitutes for conventional gasoline vehicles.Under subsidies,an increase in the sales of new energy vehicles can result from both the substitution of conventional vehicles and additional demand stimulated by the subsidies.New energy vehicles are not entirely emission-free—the carbon emissions generated during their usage phase are shifted to the electricity generation side.This leads to a dual effect of subsidies.On the one hand,the substitution effect of subsidies refers to the increase in sales of new energy vehicles achieved by substituting conventional vehicles,thereby reducing emissions from gasoline cars.On the other hand,the direct effect of subsidies means that the increase in sales of new energy vehicles is also driven by additional demand,where subsidies change consumers’decisions from not purchasing to purchasing new energy vehicles,resulting in additional emissions.Therefore,the emission reduction effect of subsidy policies depends on the relative size of these dual effects.Using microdata on the Chinese passenger vehicle market,this study employs structural estimation methods to disentangle the dual effects of subsidies.Combining automotive demand substitution and power generation structure,it evaluates the net emission reduction effect of subsidies for new energy vehicles and simulates the emission reduction effects under the dual carbon goals.The findings reveal that the purchase subsidies for new energy vehicles have effectively achieved the policy goal of market promotion,contributing to 48.72%of new energy vehicle sales.However,only 31.72%of this increment comes from the substitution effect on conventional vehicles,while the remaining 68.28%is attributed to the direct effect of subsidy stimulation.Subsidies have a two-way impact on emission reduction—the substitution effect reduces tailpipe emissions by replacing conventional vehi

关 键 词：碳排放 补贴政策 需求替代 发电结构 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]