冲突视角下的美国对外经济制裁——规范成本、相互依赖与制裁僵局  

Norm Costs,Interdependence and Sanctions Stalemate:The US Economic Sanctions from a Conflict Perspective

作　　者：庞琴 Pang Qin(the School of International Relations,Sun Yat-sen University;the Institute of Area Studies,Sun Yat-sen University)

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院,珠海510275 [2]中山大学区域国别研究院,珠海510275

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第1期108-137,174,175,共32页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“中美经济竞争中第三方国家“选边”倾向的形成机制与应对策略研究”(项目批准号:22BGJ076)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国对外经济制裁是冷战后国际政治经济学关注的重点。既有研究主要以西方学者为主体,探讨制裁的有效性及其影响因素。作者采用被制裁国的视角,将制裁视为美国以经济手段与制裁目标国进行的政治冲突,聚焦于冲突烈度最高的制裁僵局,并以信号理论为基础解释导致美国与目标国进入制裁僵局的动机和实力两方面的因素。就动机而言,美国发起的制裁可分为规范性制裁和自利性制裁两类。在规范性制裁中,美国为维持领导秩序所承担的规范成本越高,双方进入僵局的概率越大。就实力而言,双方贸易依赖可分为进口和出口两方面,作者通过引入全球价值链理论,指出目标国与美国在进口贸易方面不对称的相互依赖在两者权力差异中更加重要。它极易造成战略误判即信号扭曲,导致双方进入制裁僵局的概率出现非线性的正U形曲线关系,即当目标国对美国进口的依赖度从非常低逐步上升到中等水平,目标国和美国进入僵局的概率会减小;但是随着依赖度从中等水平上升到非常高,该概率又会逐步增大。随着中美之间结构性竞争加剧、经济安全作为当前首要重任的情况下,这一发现也具有一定的现实意义。Economic sanctions,as the most frequently employed non-violent foreign policy tool since the Cold War,have received wide academic interest.Extant research,however,predominantly adopts a Western(US)perspective,focusing on the effectiveness of sanction policies and the underlying mechanisms.This paper adopts the perspective of the sanctioned country,viewing sanctions as a political conflict initiated by the United States against the target country through economic means.It focuses on the highest intensity of conflict,the"sanctions deadlock,"and,based on signal theory,explains both the motivation and power factors that lead the United States and the target country into a"sanctions deadlock".Regarding motivation,this paper categorizes US-initiated sanctions into two types:normative sanctions and self-interest sanctions.In normative sanctions,as the normative costs borne by the United States to maintain leadership order increase,the probability of both sides entering a deadlock also increases.In terms of power,it divides the trade dependence between the two sides into imports and exports.By introducing the global value chain theory,it points out that the asymmetric interdependence between the target country and the United States in import trade is the core of their power differences.This easily leads to strategic misjudgment,namely signal distortion,resulting in a non-linear positive U-shaped curve relationship in the probability of both sides entering a sanctions deadlock.Specifically,when the target country's dependence on US imports gradually rises from"very low"to"medium",the probability of a deadlock decreases.However,as the dependence increases from"medium"to"very high",this probability gradually rises.

关 键 词：经济制裁 规范性制裁 规范成本 相互依赖 进口依赖度 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]