国家间绿色竞争、数字竞争与美国对华选择性“脱钩”  

US Selective Decoupling from China Under Inter-State Green Competition and Digital Competition

作　　者：周亚敏[1,2] Zhou Yamin(the School of International Politics and Economics of the University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences;the National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京100007 [2]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,北京100007

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第1期138-170,175,176,共35页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：绿色经济和数字经济是当今时代国家间竞争的两大核心领域。美国将中国定位为为“战略竞争对手”后,在绿色经济和数字经济领域以“去风险”名义对中国实施选择性“脱钩”战略。基于国家竞争优劣势的差异,美国在绿色经济领域和数字经济领域采取了截然不同的“脱钩”措施。基于相互依赖关系的贸易理论无法解释美国对华采取的“脱钩”行为。通过融合外源性因素、安全认知和国家竞争优势,作者提出了一个解释美国对华选择性“脱钩”的分析框架,认为绿色转型和数字转型作为外源性因素具有趋势性、不可控性和不可逆性,会致使国家间竞争出现新赛道、先发国家无法掌控竞争格局和后发国家不断跟进的局面。美国通过建构身份话语和威胁话语对绿色经济和数字经济进行了安全化塑造。美国在自身具备竞争优势的数字经济领域试图以出口管制和投资限制等手段阻断中国数字供应链的升级,而在自身存在竞争劣势的绿色经济领域实施以进口替代为特征的各类措施以摆脱对中国绿色供应链的依赖。关键矿物作为绿色经济和数字经济的共同物质基础,其产业链条也面临着被美国切割重组的风险。美国对华选择性“脱钩”的最终目标是以议题结盟方式在其政治和军事同盟体系内发展关键领域的经济相互依赖关系。Green competition and digital competition are the two core areas of national competition in this era.After positioning China as a"strategic competitor",the United States has implemented a selective"decoupling"strategy against China by targeting the green economy and the digital economy in the name of"de-risking".Based on the differences in national competitive advantages and disadvantages,the United States has taken very different"decoupling"measures in the fields of green economy and digital economy.The trade theory based on interdependence cannot explain the"decoupling"behavior of the United States towards China.By integrating exogenous factors,security perceptions and national competitive advantages,the author proposes an analytical framework to explain the selective"decoupling"of the US from China,arguing that green transformation and digital transformation,as exogenous factors,are trendy,uncontrollable and irreversible,resulting in the emergence of a new race track in national competition,the inability of the firstmover to control the competitive landscape,and continuous follow-up by the later-movers.The United States has shaped the security of the green economy and the digital economy through the construction of identity discourse and threat discourse.The United States tries to block the upgrading of China's digital supply chain by means of export control and investment restriction in the field of digital economy where the United States has competitive advantages,while in the field of green economy where the United States has competitive disadvantages,the United States mainly implements various measures characterized by import substitution to get rid of its dependence on China's green supply chain.As the common material basis of the green economy and the digital economy,the supply chain of critical minerals is also facing the risk of reorganization by the United States.The ultimate goal of the United States'selective"decoupling"from China is to develop economic interdependence in key areas within its politi

关 键 词：中美经济关系 绿色竞争 数字竞争 关键矿物 选择性“脱钩”战略 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]