北溪管道断供后的全球液化天然气市场及贸易格局  

Global LNG market and trade landscape after Nord Stream pipeline shut-down

作　　者：冯陈玥 FENG Chenyue(PetroChina International Co., Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石油国际事业有限公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第12期67-73,共7页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：在俄罗斯北溪管道断供的冲击下,全球LNG市场和贸易格局呈现新特点:LNG贸易流向重构,长期合同签订量创新高,LNG船运市场快速扩张。全球三大天然气市场价格由高位持续回落,欧亚价差反转,亚洲重回溢价市场。未来,欧洲市场长期天然气需求下降,LNG进口需求及接收能力快速增长;美国天然气产量增长促进价格维持低位,对全球LNG市场影响力增强;亚洲新兴市场需求将重回增长趋势;全球LNG市场供需的紧平衡状态有望缓解。为保障中国天然气供应安全,建议建立多元化的天然气资源池,以提高抗风险能力;通过强化国际贸易能力提升调节保供能力;建立完善中国天然气市场化交易和价格体系,增加对国际天然气价格的影响力。Impacted by the supply shock from Nord Stream Gas pipeline shut-down,the global LNG market and trade landscape have been characterized by such new features as restructuring of LNG trade flows,expansion of the LNG shipping market,and revival of long-term LNG contracts.Prices in three major regional gas markets continued to fall from high levels,the spread of JKM/TTF returned to positive value,and Asia once again became the premium market for global LNG.In the future,the long-term demand for natural gas in Europe will decline,there will be a rapid growth in LNG import demand and receiving capacity.The growth of gas production in the United States will boost prices to stay low and the United States will play a more influential role in the global LNG market.Gas demand in emerging markets in Asia will maintain the growth momentum and the tight LNG supply and demand balance is expected to ease in the coming years.To enhance the security of China's natural gas supply,it is suggested to establish a diversified natural gas portfolio to enhance risk-resisting ability,strengthen global trading capability to increase the flexibility of supply,establish and improve China's gas market trading and pricing system to boost its influence on international natural gas prices.

关 键 词：液化天然气 贸易特点 北溪管道断供 供需 价格 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746