Climate-change habitat shifts for the vulnerable endemic oak species(Quercus arkansana Sarg.)  

作　　者：Suresh Chandra Subedi Seth Drake Binaya Adhikari Mark V.Coggeshall 

机构地区：[1]Department of Biological Sciences,Arkansas Tech University,Russellville,AR,USA [2]Department of Biology,University of Kentucky,Lexington,KY,USA [3]School of Natural Resources,University of Missouri,203 ABNR Building,Columbia,MO 65211,USA

出　　处：《Journal of Forestry Research》2024年第1期117-127,共11页林业研究（英文版）

基　　金：The work was partially supported by research project funding from the Undergraduate Research Grant,Arkansas Tech University.

摘　　要：Quercus arkansana(Arkansas oak)is at risk of becoming endangered,as the total known population size is represented by a few isolated populations.The potential impact of climate change on this species in the near future is high,yet knowledge of its predicted effects is limited.Our study utilized the biomod2 R package to develop habi-tat suitability ensemble models based on bioclimatic and topographic environmental variables and the known loca-tions of current distribution of Q.arkansana.We predicted suitable habitats across three climate change scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)for 2050,2070,and 2090.Our findings reveal that the current suitable habitat for Q.arkansana is approximately 127,881 km^(2) across seven states(Texas,Arkansas,Alabama,Louisiana,Mississippi,Georgia,and Florida);approximately 9.5%is encompassed within state and federally managed protected areas.Our models predict that all current suitable habitats will disap-pear by 2050 due to climate change,resulting in a northward shift into new regions such as Tennessee and Kentucky.The large extent of suitable habitat outside protected areas sug-gests that a species-specific action plan incorporating pro-tected areas and other areas may be crucial for its conserva-tion.Moreover,protection of Q.arkansana habitat against climate change may require locally and regionally focused conservation policies,adaptive management strategies,and educational outreach among local people.

关 键 词：Biomod2 Climate change CONSERVATION Habitat loss Habitat shift Species distribution modeling Oak species 

分 类 号：S718.5[农业科学—林学]