Joint Probability Analysis and Prediction of Sea Ice Conditions in Liaodong Bay  

作　　者：LIAO Zhenkun DONG Sheng TAO Shanshan HUA Yunfei JIA Ning 

机构地区：[1]College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China [2]Shuifa Planning and Design Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250100,China [3]National Hazards Mitigation Service,Beijing 100194,China

出　　处：《Journal of Ocean University of China》2024年第1期57-68,共12页中国海洋大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284).

摘　　要：Sea ice conditions in Liaodong Bay of China are often described by sea ice grades,which classify annual sea ice conditions based on the annual maximum sea ice thickness(AM-SIT)and annual maximum floating ice extent(AM-FIE).The joint probability distribution of AM-SIT and AM-FIE was established on the basis of their data pairs from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020 in Liaodong Bay.The joint intensity index of the sea ice condition in the current year is calculated,and the joint classification criteria of the sea ice grades in past years are established on the basis of the joint intensity index series.A comparison of the joint criteria with the 1973 and 2022 criteria revealed that the joint criteria of the sea ice grade match well,and the joint intensity index can be used to quantify the sea ice condition over the years.A time series analysis of the sea ice grades and the joint intensity index sequences based on the joint criteria are then performed.Results show a decreasing trend of the sea ice condition from 1949/1950 to 2019/2020,a mutation in 1990/1991,and a period of approximately 91 years of the sea ice condition.In addition,the Gray-Markov model(GMM)is applied to predict the joint sea ice grade and the joint intensity index of the sea ice condition series in future years,and the error between the results and the actual sea ice condition in 2020/2021 is small.

关 键 词：sea ice grade ice thickness floating ice extent Liaodong Bay COPULA 

分 类 号：P731.15[天文地球—海洋科学]