突发动物疫情信息与猪肉价格波动——基于消费者网络关注视角  

Sudden Animal Epidemic Information and Pork Price Fluctuation :From the Perspective of Consumer Network Attention

作　　者：李霞 陶建平[1] 涂涛涛[1] LI Xia;TAO Jianping;TU Taotao

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2024年第2期73-95,共23页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“突发动物疫情管控的产业损害、可挽救性测度及实现路径研究”(编号:71773033);中央高校基本科研项目“突发事件、网络舆情与农产品价格波动研究——以非洲猪瘟为例”(编号:2662020JGPYD02)。

摘　　要：本文利用网络爬虫技术,搜集了2013—2021年的月度省级面板数据,结合“信息经济学”,运用精确断点回归法分析了突发动物疫情事件信息所引发的消费者网络关注突变(异常关注)对猪肉价格波动的影响及其作用机制。结果表明,(1)突发动物疫情事件信息引发消费者网络关注的突变会显著加剧猪肉价格波动;(2)引入信号环境因素后发现这一加剧作用存在异质性,从“信息被动获取”的角度来看,消费者网络关注与猪肉价格波动率之间呈“U”型关系;从“信息主动搜寻”的角度来看,在信息完全时消费者网络关注与猪肉价格波动率之间呈倒“U”型关系,而在信息不足时则呈“U”型关系;(3)进一步区分消费者异常关注和非异常关注后的回归结果显示,在不同的信号环境中,非异常关注对猪肉价格波动均不存在显著影响,而消费者异常关注对猪肉价格波动存在显著影响且有所差异,其中,“信息主动搜寻”渠道在消费者异常关注影响猪肉价格波动的过程中具有调节作用。本文结论为厘清消费者网络关注影响猪肉价格波动的机理、加强农业部门需求侧管理提供了实证参考。Using web crawler technology,we collected monthly provincial panel data from 2013 to June 2021.Combined with“information economics”,the regression Discontinuity Design is used to analyze the influence of sudden change of consumer network attention(abnormal attention)caused by sudden animal epidemic information on pork price fluctuation and its mechanism.The results show that:(1)The sudden change of consumer network attention caused by the sudden animal epidemic information will significantly aggravate pork price fluctuation.(2)After introducing the signal environmental factors,it is found that this aggravating effect is heterogeneous.from the point of view of“passive acquisition of information”,there is a U-shaped relationship between consumer network attention and pork price volatility.From the perspective of“active information search”,there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between consumer network attention and pork price volatility when the information is complete,and turning to U-shaped when the information is insufficient.(3)The regression results after further distinguishing between consumer abnormal concern and non-abnormal concern show that non-abnormal concern has no significant impact on pork prices fluctuations,while consumer abnormal concern has a significant impact on pork price fluctuations in different signal environments and has differences,among which the“information active search”channel has a regulatory effect in the process of consumer abnormal concern affecting pork price fluctuations.The conclusions provide an empirical reference for clarifying the mechanism of consumer network attention affecting pork price fluctuations and improving demand side management in the agricultural sector.

关 键 词：信息 消费者网络关注 价格波动 信号环境 断点回归 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]