业务模式晴雨预报能力分析及其改进方法研究  

Analysis of the capability of operational model clear-rain forecast and research on its improvement method

作　　者：陈婉仪 王咏青[1,2] CHEN Wanyi;WANG Yongqing(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Nanjing 210044,China;Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nanjing Joint Center of Atmospheric Research Nanjing 210009,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]南京大气科学联合研究中心,南京210009

出　　处：《气象科学》2023年第5期689-695,共7页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2020B1111200001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(42230105)。

摘　　要：以欧洲中心全球预报模式和中国华南区域中尺度模式(GZ 3 km)为例分析了2019年中国南方逐日晴雨预报的情况,并讨论模式晴雨预报的性能。借助TS检验评估方法,在与简单外推预报等的比较中,发现模式雨量预报特点及模式晴雨预报的统计规律,如两个模式同时预报晴天,或者模式预报有雨且降水量大于某阈值等情况,其预报准确率非常高;而对于两个模式预报不一致,或模式预报有雨且雨量较小等情况,则存在较大不确定性。基于上述研究,提出利用模式预报改进观测外推和利用观测与模式的频率匹配改进模式预报等方法。Based on the European Center for Medium-range Weather forecast(ECMWF)model and the Regional Mesoscale Model for South China(GZ 3 km),clear or rain daily forecast in South China in 2019 was analyzed,the performance of the model prediction was discussed.With the use of TS evaluation method,the characteristics of the model rainfall forecast and the statistical law of the model rain or clear forecast are found in comparison with simple extrapolation forecast.For instance,the case that two models forecast clear simultaneously,or model predict rainy and the predicted precipitation exceed a certain threshold can reach very high accuracy.However,there are some uncertainties when the two models do not agree,or when the model predict rain with small rainfall.Based on the above research,the method of using improved model-based observation extrapolation and using frequency matching between observation and model to improve model prediction is proposed.

关 键 词：晴雨预报 数值天气预报 检验评估 频率匹配 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]